Statistics / Football / Scotland. Premiership / Celtic vs Dundee

Celtic vs Dundee Statistics & Analysis

Celtic Celtic
Aug 03, 2026 - 18:30
1 2.15
0 0.96
xG Accuracy: 56%
Dundee Dundee
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Celtic Celtic ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2132834

Closing Odds 1.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Celtic win · Celtic 1–0 Dundee
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.41 percentage points on Celtic (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Celtic (1X2) 68.9 83.8 -14.9
Draw (1X2) 18.8 10.3 +8.5
Dundee (1X2) 12.2 5.9 +6.4
Over 2.5 goals 60.1 72.7 -12.6
Under 2.5 goals 39.9 27.3 +12.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.9% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 27.3%. The difference — about 12.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Celtic (1X2) 1.19 1.14 +3.4
Draw (1X2) 7.96 9.28 -1.7
Dundee (1X2) 12.64 16.24 -1.7
Over 2.5 goals 1.33 1.31 +1.2
Under 2.5 goals 3.33 3.49 -1.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premiership
  • Fixture: Celtic vs Dundee
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-03 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 68.9% · Draw 18.8% · Away 12.2%
  • xG (showing): Celtic 2.15 — Dundee 0.96 (total xG ≈ 3.11)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 39.9% · Implied: 28.6% · Probability edge: +11.3 pts · Est. EV: +39.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.7% · No 44.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (10.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premiership Premiership — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Celtic 7 6 0 1 18
2 Rangers 7 5 1 1 16
3 Heart Of Midlothian 7 4 1 2 13
4 Dundee 7 3 1 3 10
5 ST Mirren 7 3 1 3 10
6 ST Johnstone 7 2 2 3 8
7 Aberdeen 7 2 2 3 8
8 Dundee Utd 7 2 2 3 8
9 Motherwell 7 2 2 3 8
10 Hibernian 7 2 1 4 7
11 Falkirk 7 1 3 3 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 1 2 4 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 7 14 4 +10 18
2 Heart Of Midlothian 7 14 8 +6 13
3 Dundee 7 9 7 +2 10
4 ST Johnstone 7 9 10 -1 8
5 Dundee Utd 7 9 11 -2 8
6 Motherwell 7 9 11 -2 8
7 Rangers 7 8 4 +4 16
8 ST Mirren 7 8 9 -1 10
9 Hibernian 7 8 11 -3 7
10 Aberdeen 7 7 8 -1 8
11 Falkirk 7 6 9 -3 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 6 15 -9 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 7 11.1 1.9 +9.2 18
2 Heart Of Midlothian 7 7.1 4.5 +2.6 13
3 Motherwell 7 7.2 4.8 +2.4 8
4 ST Mirren 7 6.2 4.7 +1.5 10
5 Rangers 7 5.3 3.8 +1.5 16
6 ST Johnstone 7 6.7 5.6 +1.1 8
7 Hibernian 7 7.8 7.3 +0.5 7
8 Dundee Utd 7 6.9 8.3 -1.4 8
9 Aberdeen 7 3.4 5.4 -2.0 8
10 Dundee 7 5.6 8.7 -3.1 10
11 Falkirk 7 1.7 5.3 -3.6 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 3.1 11.9 -8.8 5