Statistics / Football / Uruguay. Segunda División / Paysandu vs Miramar

Paysandu vs Miramar Statistics & Analysis

Paysandu Paysandu
Jun 27, 2026 - 22:00
2 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 52%
Miramar Miramar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Paysandu Miramar ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 07:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2498760

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Miramar win · Paysandu 2–3 Miramar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Paysandu vs Miramar
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.9% · Away 34.8%
  • xG (showing): Paysandu 1.32 — Miramar 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 40.5% · Probability edge: +7.7 pts · Est. EV: +14.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Oriental 6 4 1 1 13
2 Plaza Colonia 6 3 3 0 12
3 Fenix 6 3 2 1 11
4 Sportivo Huracan 6 2 4 0 10
5 Colón 6 2 3 1 9
6 Uruguay Montevideo 6 2 3 1 9
7 Rentistas 6 2 3 1 9
8 Cerrito 6 2 3 1 9
9 La Luz 6 1 4 1 7
10 Miramar 6 1 2 3 5
11 Paysandu 6 1 1 4 4
12 Atenas 6 1 1 4 4
13 CA River Plate 6 1 1 4 4
14 Tacuarembo 6 0 3 3 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fenix 6 13 7 +6 11
2 Plaza Colonia 6 9 2 +7 12
3 Sportivo Huracan 6 9 6 +3 10
4 Oriental 6 8 5 +3 13
5 Colón 6 8 5 +3 9
6 Cerrito 6 8 8 0 9
7 Uruguay Montevideo 6 7 5 +2 9
8 Rentistas 6 6 5 +1 9
9 CA River Plate 6 6 13 -7 4
10 La Luz 6 5 6 -1 7
11 Tacuarembo 6 5 9 -4 3
12 Atenas 6 5 11 -6 4
13 Paysandu 6 4 7 -3 4
14 Miramar 6 3 7 -4 5
Segunda División Uruguay. Segunda División Predictions