Uljanik vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac Statistics & Analysis

Uljanik

Aug 21, 2026 - 15:30

3 1.47

2 1.13

xG Accuracy: 52%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Uljanik Uljanik ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4025505

Closing Odds 1.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Uljanik win · Uljanik 3–2 Hrvatski Dragovoljac

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Hrvatski Dragovoljac (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Hrvatski Dragovoljac (1X2) by about 7.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Uljanik (1X2)	43.3	55.6	-12.2
Draw (1X2)	29.2	24.2	+5.0
Hrvatski Dragovoljac (1X2)	27.5	20.2	+7.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	52.6	-4.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	47.4	+4.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.5% on Hrvatski Dragovoljac (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.2%. The difference — about 7.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Uljanik (1X2)	1.6	1.6
Draw (1X2)	3.67	3.67
Hrvatski Dragovoljac (1X2)	4.4	4.4
Over 2.5 goals	1.76	1.76
Under 2.5 goals	1.95	1.95

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Second NL
Fixture: Uljanik vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Kickoff: 2026-08-21 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
xG (showing): Uljanik 1.47 — Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.2% · Probability edge: +4.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second NL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bjelovar	5	4	0	1	12
2	Uskok Klis	6	4	0	2	12
3	Uljanik	6	3	2	1	11
4	Trnje	5	3	1	1	10
5	Križevci	6	3	1	2	10
6	Jarun	5	1	4	0	7
7	Inter Zapresic	5	2	1	2	7
8	Grobničan Čavle	5	2	1	2	7
9	Dugo Selo	5	2	1	2	7
10	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	6	2	1	3	7
11	Zagora	5	1	3	1	6
12	Lucko	5	1	2	2	5
13	Slavonija Požega	6	1	2	3	5
14	Solin	5	1	2	2	5
15	Koprivnica	6	1	1	4	4
16	Varteks Varaždin	5	1	0	4	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bjelovar	5	15	8	+7	12
2	Uskok Klis	6	14	7	+7	12
3	Zagora	5	14	11	+3	6
4	Uljanik	6	14	13	+1	11
5	Jarun	5	11	10	+1	7
6	Slavonija Požega	6	11	13	-2	5
7	Križevci	6	10	9	+1	10
8	Trnje	5	9	4	+5	10
9	Inter Zapresic	5	9	8	+1	7
10	Grobničan Čavle	5	8	10	-2	7
11	Koprivnica	6	8	16	-8	4
12	Lucko	5	6	5	+1	5
13	Solin	5	6	8	-2	5
14	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	6	5	8	-3	7
15	Dugo Selo	5	4	6	-2	7
16	Varteks Varaždin	5	3	11	-8	3