Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paranaense - 3 / Hope Internacional vs AA Iguaçu

Hope Internacional vs AA Iguaçu Statistics & Analysis

Hope Internacional Hope Internacional
Aug 16, 2026 - 18:30
0 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 49%
AA Iguaçu AA Iguaçu
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 AA Iguaçu Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3366216

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Hope Internacional 0–0 AA Iguaçu
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Hope Internacional (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Hope Internacional (1X2) by about 13.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Hope Internacional (1X2) 31.5 18.4 +13.0
Draw (1X2) 29.5 29.0 +0.6
AA Iguaçu (1X2) 39.0 52.6 -13.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 36.7 +11.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 63.3 -11.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Hope Internacional (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.4%. The difference — about 13.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Hope Internacional (1X2) 4.76 4.87 -0.2
Draw (1X2) 3.06 3.1 -0.1
AA Iguaçu (1X2) 1.7 1.71 +0.3
Over 2.5 goals 2.48 2.5 -0.2
Under 2.5 goals 1.45 1.45 +0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Paranaense - 3
  • Fixture: Hope Internacional vs AA Iguaçu
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Hope Internacional 1.22 — AA Iguaçu 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 40.1% · Probability edge: +14.3 pts · Est. EV: +25.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Paranaense - 3 Paranaense - 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AA Iguaçu 6 4 1 1 13
2 Hope Internacional 6 3 2 1 11
3 PSTC Procopense 6 3 1 2 10
4 Cambé 6 3 1 2 10
5 City London 6 3 0 3 9
6 Oeste Brasil 4 2 1 1 7
7 União PR 4 2 1 1 7
8 Iraty 6 2 1 3 7
9 Portuguesa Londrinense 6 2 0 4 6
9 Sport Club PR 2 0 1 1 1
10 Samas 6 1 0 5 3
11 Campo Mourão 4 0 2 2 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hope Internacional 6 8 4 +4 11
2 Oeste Brasil 4 8 5 +3 7
3 União PR 4 7 6 +1 7
4 Iraty 6 7 9 -2 7
5 AA Iguaçu 6 6 2 +4 13
6 City London 6 6 3 +3 9
7 PSTC Procopense 6 6 5 +1 10
8 Portuguesa Londrinense 6 4 8 -4 6
9 Samas 6 4 10 -6 3
10 Cambé 6 3 3 0 10
11 Campo Mourão 4 2 6 -4 2
12 Sport Club PR 2 1 3 -2 1