Statistics / Football / Morocco. Botola 2 / Raja Beni Mellal vs Chabab Mohammédia

Raja Beni Mellal vs Chabab Mohammédia Statistics & Analysis

Raja Beni Mellal Raja Beni Mellal
Jun 27, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.09
0 0.85
xG Accuracy: 62%
Chabab Mohammédia Chabab Mohammédia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Raja Beni Mellal Raja Beni Mellal ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 04:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1677531

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Raja Beni Mellal win · Raja Beni Mellal 2–0 Chabab Mohammédia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Chabab Mohammédia (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 7.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Raja Beni Mellal (1X2) 42.2 49.6 -7.5
Draw (1X2) 33.2 29.3 +3.9
Chabab Mohammédia (1X2) 24.6 21.0 +3.6
Over 2.5 goals 30.7 37.8 -7.1
Under 2.5 goals 69.3 62.2 +7.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 69.3% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 62.2%. The difference — about 7.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Raja Beni Mellal (1X2) 1.79 1.79 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.03 3.03 0.0
Chabab Mohammédia (1X2) 4.23 4.23 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.42 2.42 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.47 1.47 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Botola 2
  • Fixture: Raja Beni Mellal vs Chabab Mohammédia
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.2% · Draw 33.2% · Away 24.6%
  • xG (showing): Raja Beni Mellal 1.09 — Chabab Mohammédia 0.85 (total xG ≈ 1.94)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 69.3% · Implied: 61.6% · Probability edge: +7.7 pts · Est. EV: +4.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Botola 2 Botola 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Moghreb Tetouan 30 14 11 5 53
2 Widad Témara 30 13 14 3 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 10 16 4 46
4 El Massira 30 11 11 8 44
5 Chabab Atl. Khenifra 30 11 10 9 43
6 Riadi Salmi 30 10 12 8 42
7 Stade Marocain 30 11 8 11 41
8 Wydad Fès 30 9 11 10 38
9 Mouloudia Oujda 30 8 13 9 37
10 Chabab Ben Guerir 30 8 13 9 37
11 USM Oujda 30 9 10 11 37
12 Chabab Mohammédia 30 9 9 12 36
13 KAC Kenitra 30 8 12 10 36
14 Union Sportive Boujaad 30 7 14 9 35
15 Raja Beni Mellal 30 7 11 12 32
16 Racing de Casablanca 30 3 9 18 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riadi Salmi 30 37 35 +2 42
2 Widad Témara 30 36 26 +10 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 36 26 +10 46
4 KAC Kenitra 30 35 36 -1 36
5 Mouloudia Oujda 30 35 38 -3 37
6 Wydad Fès 30 34 30 +4 38
7 Moghreb Tetouan 30 33 22 +11 53
8 El Massira 30 29 21 +8 44
9 USM Oujda 30 29 30 -1 37
10 Chabab Atl. Khenifra 30 26 24 +2 43
11 Union Sportive Boujaad 30 25 22 +3 35
12 Chabab Ben Guerir 30 25 28 -3 37
13 Raja Beni Mellal 30 25 32 -7 32
14 Chabab Mohammédia 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Stade Marocain 30 23 24 -1 41
16 Racing de Casablanca 30 21 43 -22 18
Botola 2 Morocco. Botola 2 Predictions