Statistics / Football / Lithuania. 1 Lyga / Minija vs Babrungas

Minija vs Babrungas Statistics & Analysis

Minija Minija
Oct 17, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.19
3 1.41
xG Accuracy: 52%
Babrungas Babrungas
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Babrungas Babrungas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 12, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-15114924

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Babrungas win · Minija 2–3 Babrungas
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1 Lyga
  • Fixture: Minija vs Babrungas
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-17 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Minija 1.19 — Babrungas 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1 Lyga 1 Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Minija 25 22 1 2 67
2 Babrungas 26 20 4 2 64
3 Be1 NFA 25 16 3 6 51
4 Žalgiris II 26 14 4 8 46
5 Neptūną Klaipėda 26 14 2 10 44
6 Tauras 25 13 4 8 43
7 BFA 26 13 4 9 43
8 Dainava 26 11 8 7 41
9 Atmosfera 25 8 7 10 31
10 Jonava 26 7 6 13 27
11 Garliava 26 7 5 14 26
12 Hegelmann II 26 8 1 17 25
13 Kauno Žalgiris II 26 7 2 17 23
14 Transinvest 2 26 6 4 16 22
15 FA Šiauliai II 26 4 6 16 18
16 Ekranas 26 4 3 19 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Minija 25 68 13 +55 67
2 Babrungas 26 45 11 +34 64
3 Be1 NFA 25 45 27 +18 51
4 Tauras 25 43 31 +12 43
5 Žalgiris II 26 40 33 +7 46
6 BFA 26 40 37 +3 43
7 Dainava 26 37 27 +10 41
8 Atmosfera 25 37 33 +4 31
9 Neptūną Klaipėda 26 33 31 +2 44
10 Hegelmann II 26 31 56 -25 25
11 Transinvest 2 26 30 59 -29 22
12 FA Šiauliai II 26 30 59 -29 18
13 Garliava 26 29 31 -2 26
14 Jonava 26 28 35 -7 27
15 Kauno Žalgiris II 26 26 46 -20 23
16 Ekranas 26 26 59 -33 15
1 Lyga Lithuania. 1 Lyga Predictions