Statistics / Football / Lithuania. 1 Lyga / FA Šiauliai II vs Kauno Žalgiris II

FA Šiauliai II vs Kauno Žalgiris II Statistics & Analysis

FA Šiauliai II FA Šiauliai II
Oct 09, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.37
3 1.23
xG Accuracy: 39%
Kauno Žalgiris II Kauno Žalgiris II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FA Šiauliai II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12690426

Closing Odds 3.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · FA Šiauliai II 3–3 Kauno Žalgiris II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FA Šiauliai II (1X2) 38.5 41.5 -3.1
Draw (1X2) 29.6 24.8 +4.8
Kauno Žalgiris II (1X2) 31.9 33.7 -1.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.8%. The difference — about 4.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: betmgm us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FA Šiauliai II (1X2) 2.15 2.15 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
Kauno Žalgiris II (1X2) 2.65 2.65 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1 Lyga
  • Fixture: FA Šiauliai II vs Kauno Žalgiris II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): FA Šiauliai II 1.37 — Kauno Žalgiris II 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.6% · Implied: 34.0% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +27.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1 Lyga 1 Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Minija 25 22 1 2 67
2 Babrungas 25 19 4 2 61
3 Be1 NFA 24 16 2 6 50
4 Neptūną Klaipėda 25 14 2 9 44
5 Tauras 25 13 4 8 43
6 Žalgiris II 25 13 4 8 43
7 BFA 25 13 4 8 43
8 Dainava 25 11 7 7 40
9 Atmosfera 24 8 6 10 30
10 Jonava 25 7 6 12 27
11 Garliava 25 7 4 14 25
12 Kauno Žalgiris II 25 7 1 17 22
13 Hegelmann II 25 7 1 17 22
14 Transinvest 2 25 6 3 16 21
15 FA Šiauliai II 25 4 5 16 17
16 Ekranas 25 4 2 19 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Minija 25 68 13 +55 67
2 Babrungas 25 43 11 +32 61
3 Be1 NFA 24 43 25 +18 50
4 Tauras 25 43 31 +12 43
5 BFA 25 39 35 +4 43
6 Žalgiris II 25 38 32 +6 43
7 Atmosfera 24 37 33 +4 30
8 Dainava 25 35 25 +10 40
9 Neptūną Klaipėda 25 33 30 +3 44
10 Hegelmann II 25 30 56 -26 22
11 Garliava 25 29 31 -2 25
12 Transinvest 2 25 29 58 -29 21
13 Jonava 25 28 33 -5 27
14 FA Šiauliai II 25 27 56 -29 17
15 Ekranas 25 25 58 -33 14
16 Kauno Žalgiris II 25 23 43 -20 22
1 Lyga Lithuania. 1 Lyga Predictions