Statistics / Football / Japan. J1 League / Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus

Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus Statistics & Analysis

Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale
Oct 11, 2026 - 07:00
1 1.97
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 64%
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kawasaki Frontale Nagoya Grampus ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13186249

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nagoya Grampus win · Kawasaki Frontale 1–2 Nagoya Grampus
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: J1 League
  • Fixture: Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 07:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 51.3% · Draw 24.3% · Away 24.4%
  • xG (showing): Kawasaki Frontale 1.97 — Nagoya Grampus 1.34 (total xG ≈ 3.31)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 64.3% · Implied: 60.2% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
J1 League J1 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vissel Kobe 8 6 1 1 19
2 Kashiwa Reysol 8 6 0 2 18
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 5 2 1 17
4 Machida Zelvia 8 5 2 1 17
5 FC Tokyo 8 5 2 1 17
6 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 4 2 2 14
7 Kawasaki Frontale 8 3 4 1 13
8 Kashima 8 4 1 3 13
9 Fagiano Okayama 8 4 1 3 13
10 Urawa 8 4 0 4 12
11 Cerezo Osaka 8 3 2 3 11
12 Shimizu S-pulse 8 3 1 4 10
13 Mito Hollyhock 8 2 3 3 9
14 Kyoto Sanga 8 2 2 4 8
15 V-varen Nagasaki 8 2 2 4 8
16 Gamba Osaka 8 1 3 4 6
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 2 0 6 6
18 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1 1 6 4
19 Tokyo Verdy 8 0 4 4 4
20 JEF United Chiba 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Machida Zelvia 8 21 10 +11 17
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 20 6 +14 17
3 Kashiwa Reysol 8 17 12 +5 18
4 Kashima 8 17 16 +1 13
5 Kawasaki Frontale 8 16 12 +4 13
6 Urawa 8 16 18 -2 12
7 FC Tokyo 8 14 8 +6 17
8 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 13 9 +4 14
9 Vissel Kobe 8 12 5 +7 19
10 Fagiano Okayama 8 11 10 +1 13
11 Mito Hollyhock 8 11 11 0 9
12 Kyoto Sanga 8 11 15 -4 8
13 V-varen Nagasaki 8 10 15 -5 8
14 Avispa Fukuoka 8 9 12 -3 4
15 Gamba Osaka 8 8 14 -6 6
16 Cerezo Osaka 8 7 12 -5 11
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 7 14 -7 6
18 JEF United Chiba 8 7 18 -11 4
19 Shimizu S-pulse 8 6 8 -2 10
20 Tokyo Verdy 8 4 12 -8 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Tokyo 8 5.0 2.5 +2.5 17
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 3.6 1.1 +2.5 17
3 JEF United Chiba 8 3.6 1.9 +1.7 4
4 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 3.9 2.3 +1.6 14
5 Vissel Kobe 8 2.3 0.9 +1.4 19
6 Cerezo Osaka 8 2.6 2.0 +0.6 11
7 Fagiano Okayama 8 2.0 1.8 +0.2 13
8 Kawasaki Frontale 8 1.3 1.1 +0.2 13
9 V-varen Nagasaki 8 4.3 4.5 -0.2 8
10 Avispa Fukuoka 8 2.4 2.6 -0.2 4
11 Kashima 8 1.3 1.6 -0.3 13
12 Mito Hollyhock 8 2.2 2.6 -0.4 9
13 Machida Zelvia 8 0.7 1.1 -0.4 17
14 Shimizu S-pulse 8 3.0 3.6 -0.6 10
15 Urawa 8 2.7 3.4 -0.7 12
16 Kashiwa Reysol 8 1.1 1.8 -0.7 18
17 Kyoto Sanga 8 2.6 3.7 -1.1 8
18 Nagoya Grampus 8 1.7 3.5 -1.8 6
19 Gamba Osaka 8 1.7 3.7 -2.0 6
20 Tokyo Verdy 8 1.4 3.6 -2.2 4
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