Statistics / Football / Japan. J1 League / Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia

Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia Statistics & Analysis

Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
Sep 06, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.08
3 1.17
xG Accuracy: 59%
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6321215

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Machida Zelvia win · Nagoya Grampus 1–3 Machida Zelvia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Nagoya Grampus (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Nagoya Grampus (1X2) 31.1 29.0 +2.2
Draw (1X2) 31.2 26.8 +4.4
Machida Zelvia (1X2) 37.6 44.2 -6.6
Over 2.5 goals 39.1 52.0 -12.9
Under 2.5 goals 60.9 48.0 +12.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 60.9% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 48.0%. The difference — about 12.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Nagoya Grampus (1X2) 3.34 3.34 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.61 3.61 0.0
Machida Zelvia (1X2) 2.19 2.19 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.87 1.87 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.03 2.03 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: J1 League
  • Fixture: Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.1% · Draw 31.2% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Nagoya Grampus 1.08 — Machida Zelvia 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.25)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 60.9% · Implied: 48.7% · Probability edge: +12.2 pts · Est. EV: +23.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
J1 League J1 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vissel Kobe 8 6 1 1 19
2 Kashiwa Reysol 8 6 0 2 18
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 5 2 1 17
4 Machida Zelvia 8 5 2 1 17
5 FC Tokyo 8 5 2 1 17
6 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 4 2 2 14
7 Kawasaki Frontale 8 3 4 1 13
8 Kashima 8 4 1 3 13
9 Fagiano Okayama 8 4 1 3 13
10 Urawa 8 4 0 4 12
11 Cerezo Osaka 8 3 2 3 11
12 Shimizu S-pulse 8 3 1 4 10
13 Mito Hollyhock 8 2 3 3 9
14 Kyoto Sanga 8 2 2 4 8
15 V-varen Nagasaki 8 2 2 4 8
16 Gamba Osaka 8 1 3 4 6
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 2 0 6 6
18 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1 1 6 4
19 Tokyo Verdy 8 0 4 4 4
20 JEF United Chiba 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Machida Zelvia 8 21 10 +11 17
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 20 6 +14 17
3 Kashiwa Reysol 8 17 12 +5 18
4 Kashima 8 17 16 +1 13
5 Kawasaki Frontale 8 16 12 +4 13
6 Urawa 8 16 18 -2 12
7 FC Tokyo 8 14 8 +6 17
8 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 13 9 +4 14
9 Vissel Kobe 8 12 5 +7 19
10 Fagiano Okayama 8 11 10 +1 13
11 Mito Hollyhock 8 11 11 0 9
12 Kyoto Sanga 8 11 15 -4 8
13 V-varen Nagasaki 8 10 15 -5 8
14 Avispa Fukuoka 8 9 12 -3 4
15 Gamba Osaka 8 8 14 -6 6
16 Cerezo Osaka 8 7 12 -5 11
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 7 14 -7 6
18 JEF United Chiba 8 7 18 -11 4
19 Shimizu S-pulse 8 6 8 -2 10
20 Tokyo Verdy 8 4 12 -8 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 V-varen Nagasaki 8 3.7 1.7 +2.0 8
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 2.2 0.6 +1.6 17
3 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 3.0 1.5 +1.5 14
4 Vissel Kobe 8 2.3 0.9 +1.4 19
5 FC Tokyo 8 3.0 1.7 +1.3 17
6 Cerezo Osaka 8 1.8 1.1 +0.7 11
7 Urawa 8 1.9 1.4 +0.5 12
8 Fagiano Okayama 8 1.3 0.8 +0.5 13
9 Mito Hollyhock 8 1.6 1.3 +0.3 9
10 Kashima 8 1.3 1.6 -0.3 13
11 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1.4 1.9 -0.5 4
12 JEF United Chiba 8 0.8 1.3 -0.5 4
13 Kashiwa Reysol 8 1.1 1.8 -0.7 18
14 Shimizu S-pulse 8 1.7 3.0 -1.3 10
15 Tokyo Verdy 8 0.9 2.3 -1.4 4
16 Kyoto Sanga 8 1.5 3.0 -1.5 8
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 0.6 2.2 -1.6 6
18 Gamba Osaka 8 1.7 3.7 -2.0 6
19 Machida Zelvia 8 — — — 17
20 Kawasaki Frontale 8 — — — 13