Statistics / Football / Japan. J1 League / Urawa vs Yokohama F. Marinos

Urawa vs Yokohama F. Marinos Statistics & Analysis

Urawa Urawa
Aug 29, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.00
2 1.77
xG Accuracy: 54%
Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yokohama F. Marinos Urawa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5123013

Closing Odds 3.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Urawa win · Urawa 3–2 Yokohama F. Marinos
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Yokohama F. Marinos (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Yokohama F. Marinos (1X2) by about 25.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Urawa (1X2) 19.8 44.7 -25.0
Draw (1X2) 26.2 26.8 -0.5
Yokohama F. Marinos (1X2) 54.0 28.5 +25.5
Over 2.5 goals 52.3 51.4 +0.9
Under 2.5 goals 47.7 48.6 -0.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 54.0% on Yokohama F. Marinos (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.5%. The difference — about 25.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Urawa (1X2) 2.16 2.16 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.61 3.61 0.0
Yokohama F. Marinos (1X2) 3.39 3.39 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.89 1.89 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.0 2.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: J1 League
  • Fixture: Urawa vs Yokohama F. Marinos
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 19.8% · Draw 26.2% · Away 54.0%
  • xG (showing): Urawa 1.0 — Yokohama F. Marinos 1.77 (total xG ≈ 2.77)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Yokohama F. Marinos
  • Model: 54.0% · Implied: 28.5% · Probability edge: +25.5 pts · Est. EV: +12.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (11.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
J1 League J1 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vissel Kobe 8 6 1 1 19
2 Kashiwa Reysol 8 6 0 2 18
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 5 2 1 17
4 Machida Zelvia 8 5 2 1 17
5 FC Tokyo 8 5 2 1 17
6 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 4 2 2 14
7 Kawasaki Frontale 8 3 4 1 13
8 Kashima 8 4 1 3 13
9 Fagiano Okayama 8 4 1 3 13
10 Urawa 8 4 0 4 12
11 Cerezo Osaka 8 3 2 3 11
12 Shimizu S-pulse 8 3 1 4 10
13 Mito Hollyhock 8 2 3 3 9
14 Kyoto Sanga 8 2 2 4 8
15 V-varen Nagasaki 8 2 2 4 8
16 Gamba Osaka 8 1 3 4 6
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 2 0 6 6
18 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1 1 6 4
19 Tokyo Verdy 8 0 4 4 4
20 JEF United Chiba 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Machida Zelvia 8 21 10 +11 17
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 20 6 +14 17
3 Kashiwa Reysol 8 17 12 +5 18
4 Kashima 8 17 16 +1 13
5 Kawasaki Frontale 8 16 12 +4 13
6 Urawa 8 16 18 -2 12
7 FC Tokyo 8 14 8 +6 17
8 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 13 9 +4 14
9 Vissel Kobe 8 12 5 +7 19
10 Fagiano Okayama 8 11 10 +1 13
11 Mito Hollyhock 8 11 11 0 9
12 Kyoto Sanga 8 11 15 -4 8
13 V-varen Nagasaki 8 10 15 -5 8
14 Avispa Fukuoka 8 9 12 -3 4
15 Gamba Osaka 8 8 14 -6 6
16 Cerezo Osaka 8 7 12 -5 11
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 7 14 -7 6
18 JEF United Chiba 8 7 18 -11 4
19 Shimizu S-pulse 8 6 8 -2 10
20 Tokyo Verdy 8 4 12 -8 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 V-varen Nagasaki 8 3.7 1.7 +2.0 8
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 2.2 0.6 +1.6 17
3 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 3.0 1.5 +1.5 14
4 Vissel Kobe 8 2.3 0.9 +1.4 19
5 FC Tokyo 8 3.0 1.7 +1.3 17
6 Cerezo Osaka 8 1.8 1.1 +0.7 11
7 Urawa 8 1.9 1.4 +0.5 12
8 Fagiano Okayama 8 1.3 0.8 +0.5 13
9 Mito Hollyhock 8 1.6 1.3 +0.3 9
10 Kashima 8 1.3 1.6 -0.3 13
11 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1.4 1.9 -0.5 4
12 JEF United Chiba 8 0.8 1.3 -0.5 4
13 Kashiwa Reysol 8 1.1 1.8 -0.7 18
14 Shimizu S-pulse 8 1.7 3.0 -1.3 10
15 Tokyo Verdy 8 0.9 2.3 -1.4 4
16 Kyoto Sanga 8 1.5 3.0 -1.5 8
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 0.6 2.2 -1.6 6
18 Gamba Osaka 8 1.7 3.7 -2.0 6
19 Machida Zelvia 8 — — — 17
20 Kawasaki Frontale 8 — — — 13