Statistics / Football / Japan. J1 League / Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale Statistics & Analysis

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Aug 22, 2026 - 10:15
1 2.03
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 69%
Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4214129

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–1 Kawasaki Frontale
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.58 percentage points on Sanfrecce Hiroshima (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Kawasaki Frontale (1X2) by about 6.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (1X2) 53.1 63.8 -10.7
Draw (1X2) 23.8 20.0 +3.8
Kawasaki Frontale (1X2) 23.0 16.1 +6.9
Over 2.5 goals 64.7 63.9 +0.8
Under 2.5 goals 35.3 36.1 -0.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 23.0% on Kawasaki Frontale (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.1%. The difference — about 6.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (1X2) 1.55 1.51 +1.6
Draw (1X2) 4.63 4.81 -0.8
Kawasaki Frontale (1X2) 5.7 5.97 -0.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.54 1.5 +1.4
Under 2.5 goals 2.57 2.66 -1.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: J1 League
  • Fixture: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 10:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 53.1% · Draw 23.8% · Away 23.0%
  • xG (showing): Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.03 — Kawasaki Frontale 1.3 (total xG ≈ 3.33)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 64.4% · Implied: 58.6% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.4% · No 35.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
J1 League J1 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vissel Kobe 8 6 1 1 19
2 Kashiwa Reysol 8 6 0 2 18
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 5 2 1 17
4 Machida Zelvia 8 5 2 1 17
5 FC Tokyo 8 5 2 1 17
6 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 4 2 2 14
7 Kawasaki Frontale 8 3 4 1 13
8 Kashima 8 4 1 3 13
9 Fagiano Okayama 8 4 1 3 13
10 Urawa 8 4 0 4 12
11 Cerezo Osaka 8 3 2 3 11
12 Shimizu S-pulse 8 3 1 4 10
13 Mito Hollyhock 8 2 3 3 9
14 Kyoto Sanga 8 2 2 4 8
15 V-varen Nagasaki 8 2 2 4 8
16 Gamba Osaka 8 1 3 4 6
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 2 0 6 6
18 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1 1 6 4
19 Tokyo Verdy 8 0 4 4 4
20 JEF United Chiba 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Machida Zelvia 8 21 10 +11 17
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 20 6 +14 17
3 Kashiwa Reysol 8 17 12 +5 18
4 Kashima 8 17 16 +1 13
5 Kawasaki Frontale 8 16 12 +4 13
6 Urawa 8 16 18 -2 12
7 FC Tokyo 8 14 8 +6 17
8 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 13 9 +4 14
9 Vissel Kobe 8 12 5 +7 19
10 Fagiano Okayama 8 11 10 +1 13
11 Mito Hollyhock 8 11 11 0 9
12 Kyoto Sanga 8 11 15 -4 8
13 V-varen Nagasaki 8 10 15 -5 8
14 Avispa Fukuoka 8 9 12 -3 4
15 Gamba Osaka 8 8 14 -6 6
16 Cerezo Osaka 8 7 12 -5 11
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 7 14 -7 6
18 JEF United Chiba 8 7 18 -11 4
19 Shimizu S-pulse 8 6 8 -2 10
20 Tokyo Verdy 8 4 12 -8 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 V-varen Nagasaki 8 3.7 1.7 +2.0 8
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 2.2 0.6 +1.6 17
3 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 3.0 1.5 +1.5 14
4 Vissel Kobe 8 2.3 0.9 +1.4 19
5 FC Tokyo 8 3.0 1.7 +1.3 17
6 Cerezo Osaka 8 1.8 1.1 +0.7 11
7 Urawa 8 1.9 1.4 +0.5 12
8 Fagiano Okayama 8 1.3 0.8 +0.5 13
9 Mito Hollyhock 8 1.6 1.3 +0.3 9
10 Kashima 8 1.3 1.6 -0.3 13
11 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1.4 1.9 -0.5 4
12 JEF United Chiba 8 0.8 1.3 -0.5 4
13 Kashiwa Reysol 8 1.1 1.8 -0.7 18
14 Shimizu S-pulse 8 1.7 3.0 -1.3 10
15 Tokyo Verdy 8 0.9 2.3 -1.4 4
16 Kyoto Sanga 8 1.5 3.0 -1.5 8
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 0.6 2.2 -1.6 6
18 Gamba Osaka 8 1.7 3.7 -2.0 6
19 Machida Zelvia 8 — — — 17
20 Kawasaki Frontale 8 — — — 13