Statistics / Football / Japan. J1 League / Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka

Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka Statistics & Analysis

Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka
Aug 15, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.58
0 1.41
xG Accuracy: 46%
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3339432

Closing Odds 2.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Avispa Fukuoka win · Avispa Fukuoka 3–0 Cerezo Osaka
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Avispa Fukuoka (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 11.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Avispa Fukuoka (1X2) 40.1 35.4 +4.7
Draw (1X2) 27.2 29.6 -2.4
Cerezo Osaka (1X2) 32.7 35.0 -2.4
Over 2.5 goals 57.5 46.2 +11.2
Under 2.5 goals 42.5 53.8 -11.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 57.5% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.2%. The difference — about 11.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Avispa Fukuoka (1X2) 2.72 2.72 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.26 3.26 0.0
Cerezo Osaka (1X2) 2.75 2.75 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.08 2.08 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.79 1.79 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: J1 League
  • Fixture: Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.2% · Draw 27.2% · Away 32.7%
  • xG (showing): Avispa Fukuoka 1.58 — Cerezo Osaka 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.99)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 57.5% · Implied: 46.5% · Probability edge: +11.0 pts · Est. EV: +23.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.5% · No 38.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
J1 League J1 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Machida Zelvia 7 5 2 0 17
2 Vissel Kobe 7 5 1 1 16
3 Kashiwa Reysol 7 5 0 2 15
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 7 4 2 1 14
5 FC Tokyo 7 4 2 1 14
6 Kawasaki Frontale 7 3 3 1 12
7 Kashima 7 4 0 3 12
8 Yokohama F. Marinos 7 3 2 2 11
9 Fagiano Okayama 6 3 1 2 10
10 Cerezo Osaka 7 3 1 3 10
11 Mito Hollyhock 7 2 3 2 9
12 Urawa 6 3 0 3 9
13 Shimizu S-pulse 7 2 1 4 7
14 V-varen Nagasaki 7 2 1 4 7
15 Gamba Osaka 7 1 3 3 6
16 Nagoya Grampus 7 2 0 5 6
17 Kyoto Sanga 7 1 2 4 5
18 Avispa Fukuoka 7 1 1 5 4
19 Tokyo Verdy 6 0 3 3 3
20 JEF United Chiba 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Machida Zelvia 7 19 6 +13 17
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 7 19 6 +13 14
3 Kashima 7 14 13 +1 12
4 FC Tokyo 7 13 8 +5 14
5 Kawasaki Frontale 7 13 9 +4 12
6 Kashiwa Reysol 7 13 10 +3 15
7 Urawa 6 12 15 -3 9
8 Vissel Kobe 7 11 5 +6 16
9 Yokohama F. Marinos 7 11 9 +2 11
10 Mito Hollyhock 7 11 9 +2 9
11 Avispa Fukuoka 7 9 11 -2 4
12 V-varen Nagasaki 7 9 14 -5 7
13 Kyoto Sanga 7 9 14 -5 5
14 Fagiano Okayama 6 8 7 +1 10
15 Gamba Osaka 7 8 13 -5 6
16 Nagoya Grampus 7 7 13 -6 6
17 Cerezo Osaka 7 6 11 -5 10
18 JEF United Chiba 6 5 15 -10 3
19 Shimizu S-pulse 7 4 7 -3 7
20 Tokyo Verdy 6 2 8 -6 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 V-varen Nagasaki 7 3.7 1.7 +2.0 7
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 7 2.2 0.6 +1.6 14
3 Yokohama F. Marinos 7 3.0 1.5 +1.5 11
4 Vissel Kobe 7 2.3 0.9 +1.4 16
5 FC Tokyo 7 3.0 1.7 +1.3 14
6 Cerezo Osaka 7 1.8 1.1 +0.7 10
7 Urawa 6 1.9 1.4 +0.5 9
8 Fagiano Okayama 6 1.3 0.8 +0.5 10
9 Mito Hollyhock 7 1.6 1.3 +0.3 9
10 Kashima 7 1.3 1.6 -0.3 12
11 Avispa Fukuoka 7 1.4 1.9 -0.5 4
12 JEF United Chiba 6 0.8 1.3 -0.5 3
13 Kashiwa Reysol 7 1.1 1.8 -0.7 15
14 Shimizu S-pulse 7 1.7 3.0 -1.3 7
15 Tokyo Verdy 6 0.9 2.3 -1.4 3
16 Kyoto Sanga 7 1.5 3.0 -1.5 5
17 Nagoya Grampus 7 0.6 2.2 -1.6 6
18 Gamba Osaka 7 1.7 3.7 -2.0 6
19 Machida Zelvia 7 — — — 17
20 Kawasaki Frontale 7 — — — 12
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