Statistics / Football / Japan. J3 League / Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori Statistics & Analysis

Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga
Oct 03, 2026 - 05:00
0 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 00:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11217117

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gainare Tottori win · Matsumoto Yamaga 0–1 Gainare Tottori
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: J3 League
  • Fixture: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 05:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Matsumoto Yamaga 1.28 — Gainare Tottori 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.9% · Probability edge: +4.9 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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J3 League J3 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kagoshima United 9 7 2 0 23
2 Ehime FC 9 6 2 1 20
3 Sagamihara 10 5 3 2 18
4 Osaka 10 4 5 1 17
5 Renofa Yamaguchi 9 5 2 2 17
6 Nara Club 9 5 2 2 17
7 Kanazawa 10 4 2 4 14
8 Roasso Kumamoto 9 3 5 1 14
9 FC Gifu 9 4 1 4 13
10 Biwako Shiga 9 4 1 4 13
11 Gainare Tottori 9 4 1 4 13
12 Parceiro Nagano 9 3 2 4 11
13 FC Ryukyu 9 3 2 4 11
14 Tochigi SC 9 2 4 3 10
15 Kitakyushu 9 2 4 3 10
16 Matsumoto Yamaga 9 1 5 3 8
17 Fukushima United 9 2 1 6 7
18 Thespakusatsu Gunma 9 2 0 7 6
19 Kamatamare Sanuki 10 1 2 7 5
20 Kochi United 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ehime FC 9 22 10 +12 20
2 Kagoshima United 9 19 10 +9 23
3 FC Gifu 9 19 10 +9 13
4 Nara Club 9 19 16 +3 17
5 Osaka 10 18 9 +9 17
6 Sagamihara 10 18 12 +6 18
7 Fukushima United 9 18 23 -5 7
8 Kanazawa 10 17 14 +3 14
9 Biwako Shiga 9 14 14 0 13
10 Renofa Yamaguchi 9 13 7 +6 17
11 Kitakyushu 9 12 16 -4 10
12 Gainare Tottori 9 12 18 -6 13
13 Kamatamare Sanuki 10 12 20 -8 5
14 Parceiro Nagano 9 11 13 -2 11
15 Tochigi SC 9 11 14 -3 10
16 FC Ryukyu 9 10 12 -2 11
17 Matsumoto Yamaga 9 8 11 -3 8
18 Thespakusatsu Gunma 9 8 18 -10 6
19 Roasso Kumamoto 9 7 4 +3 14
20 Kochi United 9 3 20 -17 5
J3 League Japan. J3 League Predictions