Statistics / Football / Japan. J3 League / Fukushima United vs Parceiro Nagano

Fukushima United vs Parceiro Nagano Statistics & Analysis

Fukushima United Fukushima United
Sep 26, 2026 - 08:00
4 1.49
3 1.11
xG Accuracy: 30%
Parceiro Nagano Parceiro Nagano
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fukushima United Fukushima United ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10076488

Closing Odds 3.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fukushima United win · Fukushima United 4–3 Parceiro Nagano
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fukushima United (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 3.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fukushima United (1X2) 44.3 42.2 +2.1
Draw (1X2) 29.0 27.9 +1.2
Parceiro Nagano (1X2) 26.7 29.9 -3.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 52.0 -3.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.0 +3.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 48.0%. The difference — about 3.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fukushima United (1X2) 2.17 2.17 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.29 3.29 0.0
Parceiro Nagano (1X2) 3.06 3.06 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.82 1.82 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.97 1.97 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: J3 League
  • Fixture: Fukushima United vs Parceiro Nagano
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.7%
  • xG (showing): Fukushima United 1.49 — Parceiro Nagano 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.6% · Probability edge: +3.2 pts · Est. EV: +2.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
J3 League J3 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kagoshima United 8 6 2 0 20
2 Ehime FC 8 5 2 1 17
3 Osaka 8 4 4 0 16
4 Renofa Yamaguchi 8 4 2 2 14
5 Nara Club 8 4 2 2 14
6 FC Gifu 8 4 1 3 13
7 Roasso Kumamoto 8 3 4 1 13
8 Sagamihara 8 3 3 2 12
9 Biwako Shiga 8 4 0 4 12
10 FC Ryukyu 8 3 2 3 11
11 Parceiro Nagano 8 3 2 3 11
12 Kanazawa 8 3 1 4 10
13 Gainare Tottori 8 3 1 4 10
14 Tochigi SC 8 2 3 3 9
15 Matsumoto Yamaga 8 1 5 2 8
16 Fukushima United 8 2 1 5 7
17 Kitakyushu 8 1 4 3 7
18 Thespakusatsu Gunma 8 2 0 6 6
19 Kochi United 8 1 2 5 5
20 Kamatamare Sanuki 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Gifu 8 19 8 +11 13
2 Ehime FC 8 19 9 +10 17
3 Nara Club 8 18 16 +2 14
4 Osaka 8 17 7 +10 16
5 Kagoshima United 8 16 8 +8 20
6 Fukushima United 8 16 20 -4 7
7 Sagamihara 8 14 10 +4 12
8 Kanazawa 8 14 13 +1 10
9 Biwako Shiga 8 14 14 0 12
10 Renofa Yamaguchi 8 11 7 +4 14
11 Parceiro Nagano 8 11 12 -1 11
12 Tochigi SC 8 11 14 -3 9
13 Gainare Tottori 8 11 18 -7 10
14 FC Ryukyu 8 10 10 0 11
15 Kitakyushu 8 10 16 -6 7
16 Kamatamare Sanuki 8 10 17 -7 4
17 Matsumoto Yamaga 8 8 10 -2 8
18 Roasso Kumamoto 8 7 4 +3 13
19 Thespakusatsu Gunma 8 7 15 -8 6
20 Kochi United 8 3 18 -15 5
J3 League Japan. J3 League Predictions