Statistics / Football / Israel. Ligat Ha'al / Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Katamon

Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Katamon Statistics & Analysis

Maccabi Petah Tikva Maccabi Petah Tikva
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.30
4 1.30
xG Accuracy: 39%
Hapoel Katamon Hapoel Katamon
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Maccabi Petah Tikva Hapoel Katamon ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8704955

Closing Odds 3.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Hapoel Katamon win · Maccabi Petah Tikva 2–4 Hapoel Katamon
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Hapoel Katamon (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Hapoel Katamon (1X2) by about 4.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Maccabi Petah Tikva (1X2) 35.2 38.6 -3.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 30.6 -0.9
Hapoel Katamon (1X2) 35.2 30.9 +4.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 44.3 +3.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 55.7 -3.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on Hapoel Katamon (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.9%. The difference — about 4.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Maccabi Petah Tikva (1X2) 2.47 2.47 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.12 3.12 0.0
Hapoel Katamon (1X2) 3.09 3.09 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.15 2.15 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.71 1.71 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ligat Ha'al
  • Fixture: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Katamon
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.3 — Hapoel Katamon 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 50.6% · Probability edge: +3.9 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ligat Ha'al Ligat Ha'al — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maccabi Tel Aviv 5 5 0 0 15
2 Maccabi Haifa 5 4 0 1 12
3 Hapoel Tel Aviv 5 3 1 1 10
4 Hapoel Beer Sheva 5 3 1 1 10
5 Beitar Jerusalem 5 3 0 2 9
6 Hapoel Katamon 5 2 1 2 7
7 Hapoel Haifa 5 1 3 1 6
8 Maccabi Petah Tikva 5 2 0 3 6
9 Maccabi Netanya 5 1 2 2 5
10 Bnei Sakhnin 5 1 1 3 4
11 Hapoel Ramat Gan 5 1 0 4 3
12 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 5 1 0 4 3
13 Hapoel Petah Tikva 5 1 0 4 3
14 Ironi Tiberias 5 2 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Maccabi Tel Aviv 5 18 6 +12 15
2 Maccabi Haifa 5 12 7 +5 12
3 Hapoel Katamon 5 12 12 0 7
4 Hapoel Tel Aviv 5 11 4 +7 10
5 Hapoel Beer Sheva 5 8 7 +1 10
6 Maccabi Petah Tikva 5 8 11 -3 6
7 Hapoel Haifa 5 7 6 +1 6
8 Ironi Tiberias 5 7 8 -1 1
9 Beitar Jerusalem 5 7 9 -2 9
10 Maccabi Netanya 5 6 6 0 5
11 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 5 5 11 -6 3
12 Hapoel Ramat Gan 5 4 9 -5 3
13 Bnei Sakhnin 5 3 6 -3 4
14 Hapoel Petah Tikva 5 2 8 -6 3