Statistics / Football / Israel. Ligat Ha'al / Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Statistics & Analysis

Maccabi Tel Aviv Maccabi Tel Aviv
Sep 14, 2026 - 17:30
4 1.12
1 0.85
xG Accuracy: 44%
Hapoel Tel Aviv Hapoel Tel Aviv
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Maccabi Tel Aviv Maccabi Tel Aviv ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7572830

Closing Odds 3.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Maccabi Tel Aviv win · Maccabi Tel Aviv 4–1 Hapoel Tel Aviv
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 29.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Maccabi Tel Aviv (1X2) 40.0 44.1 -4.1
Draw (1X2) 34.2 25.9 +8.3
Hapoel Tel Aviv (1X2) 25.8 29.9 -4.1
Over 2.5 goals 31.5 60.6 -29.1
Under 2.5 goals 68.5 39.4 +29.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 68.5% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.4%. The difference — about 29.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Maccabi Tel Aviv (1X2) 2.16 2.16 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.67 3.67 0.0
Hapoel Tel Aviv (1X2) 3.18 3.18 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.42 2.42 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligat Ha'al
  • Fixture: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-14 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 34.2% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.12 — Hapoel Tel Aviv 0.85 (total xG ≈ 1.97)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 68.5% · Implied: 41.7% · Probability edge: +26.8 pts · Est. EV: +57.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.3% · No 59.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ligat Ha'al Ligat Ha'al — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maccabi Tel Aviv 5 5 0 0 15
2 Maccabi Haifa 5 4 0 1 12
3 Hapoel Tel Aviv 5 3 1 1 10
4 Hapoel Beer Sheva 5 3 1 1 10
5 Beitar Jerusalem 5 3 0 2 9
6 Hapoel Katamon 5 2 1 2 7
7 Hapoel Haifa 5 1 3 1 6
8 Maccabi Petah Tikva 5 2 0 3 6
9 Maccabi Netanya 5 1 2 2 5
10 Bnei Sakhnin 5 1 1 3 4
11 Hapoel Ramat Gan 5 1 0 4 3
12 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 5 1 0 4 3
13 Hapoel Petah Tikva 5 1 0 4 3
14 Ironi Tiberias 5 2 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Maccabi Tel Aviv 5 18 6 +12 15
2 Maccabi Haifa 5 12 7 +5 12
3 Hapoel Katamon 5 12 12 0 7
4 Hapoel Tel Aviv 5 11 4 +7 10
5 Hapoel Beer Sheva 5 8 7 +1 10
6 Maccabi Petah Tikva 5 8 11 -3 6
7 Hapoel Haifa 5 7 6 +1 6
8 Ironi Tiberias 5 7 8 -1 1
9 Beitar Jerusalem 5 7 9 -2 9
10 Maccabi Netanya 5 6 6 0 5
11 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 5 5 11 -6 3
12 Hapoel Ramat Gan 5 4 9 -5 3
13 Bnei Sakhnin 5 3 6 -3 4
14 Hapoel Petah Tikva 5 2 8 -6 3