Statistics / Football / Israel. Ligat Ha'al / Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias

Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias Statistics & Analysis

Maccabi Petah Tikva Maccabi Petah Tikva
Sep 05, 2026 - 16:45
1 1.33
2 1.27
xG Accuracy: 75%
Ironi Tiberias Ironi Tiberias
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Maccabi Petah Tikva Ironi Tiberias ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6163843

Closing Odds 1.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ironi Tiberias win · Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–2 Ironi Tiberias
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ironi Tiberias (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ironi Tiberias (1X2) by about 7.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Maccabi Petah Tikva (1X2) 36.6 47.8 -11.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 25.4 +4.3
Ironi Tiberias (1X2) 33.8 26.8 +7.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 50.0 -1.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.0 +1.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Ironi Tiberias (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.8%. The difference — about 7.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Maccabi Petah Tikva (1X2) 1.99 1.99 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.75 3.75 0.0
Ironi Tiberias (1X2) 3.55 3.55 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.92 1.92 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.92 1.92 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligat Ha'al
  • Fixture: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 16:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.33 — Ironi Tiberias 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.8%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ligat Ha'al Ligat Ha'al — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maccabi Tel Aviv 5 5 0 0 15
2 Maccabi Haifa 5 4 0 1 12
3 Hapoel Tel Aviv 5 3 1 1 10
4 Hapoel Beer Sheva 5 3 1 1 10
5 Beitar Jerusalem 5 3 0 2 9
6 Hapoel Katamon 5 2 1 2 7
7 Hapoel Haifa 5 1 3 1 6
8 Maccabi Petah Tikva 5 2 0 3 6
9 Maccabi Netanya 5 1 2 2 5
10 Bnei Sakhnin 5 1 1 3 4
11 Hapoel Ramat Gan 5 1 0 4 3
12 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 5 1 0 4 3
13 Hapoel Petah Tikva 5 1 0 4 3
14 Ironi Tiberias 5 2 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Maccabi Tel Aviv 5 18 6 +12 15
2 Maccabi Haifa 5 12 7 +5 12
3 Hapoel Katamon 5 12 12 0 7
4 Hapoel Tel Aviv 5 11 4 +7 10
5 Hapoel Beer Sheva 5 8 7 +1 10
6 Maccabi Petah Tikva 5 8 11 -3 6
7 Hapoel Haifa 5 7 6 +1 6
8 Ironi Tiberias 5 7 8 -1 1
9 Beitar Jerusalem 5 7 9 -2 9
10 Maccabi Netanya 5 6 6 0 5
11 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 5 5 11 -6 3
12 Hapoel Ramat Gan 5 4 9 -5 3
13 Bnei Sakhnin 5 3 6 -3 4
14 Hapoel Petah Tikva 5 2 8 -6 3