Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Petah Tikva Statistics & Analysis

Ironi Tiberias

Aug 22, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.25

0 1.35

xG Accuracy: 64%

Hapoel Petah Tikva

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hapoel Petah Tikva Ironi Tiberias ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4238945

Closing Odds 3.38

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Ironi Tiberias win · Ironi Tiberias 1–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ironi Tiberias (1X2)	32.9	33.5	-0.7
Draw (1X2)	29.6	28.2	+1.4
Hapoel Petah Tikva (1X2)	37.6	38.3	-0.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	48.4	-0.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	51.6	+0.2

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Ironi Tiberias (1X2)	2.84	2.84
Draw (1X2)	3.38	3.38
Hapoel Petah Tikva (1X2)	2.49	2.49
Over 2.5 goals	1.98	1.98
Under 2.5 goals	1.86	1.86

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Ligat Ha'al
Fixture: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Ironi Tiberias 1.25 — Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligat Ha'al — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	5	5	0	0	15
2	Maccabi Haifa	5	4	0	1	12
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	5	3	1	1	10
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	5	3	1	1	10
5	Beitar Jerusalem	5	3	0	2	9
6	Hapoel Katamon	5	2	1	2	7
7	Hapoel Haifa	5	1	3	1	6
8	Maccabi Petah Tikva	5	2	0	3	6
9	Maccabi Netanya	5	1	2	2	5
10	Bnei Sakhnin	5	1	1	3	4
11	Hapoel Ramat Gan	5	1	0	4	3
12	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	5	1	0	4	3
13	Hapoel Petah Tikva	5	1	0	4	3
14	Ironi Tiberias	5	2	1	2	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	5	18	6	+12	15
2	Maccabi Haifa	5	12	7	+5	12
3	Hapoel Katamon	5	12	12	0	7
4	Hapoel Tel Aviv	5	11	4	+7	10
5	Hapoel Beer Sheva	5	8	7	+1	10
6	Maccabi Petah Tikva	5	8	11	-3	6
7	Hapoel Haifa	5	7	6	+1	6
8	Ironi Tiberias	5	7	8	-1	1
9	Beitar Jerusalem	5	7	9	-2	9
10	Maccabi Netanya	5	6	6	0	5
11	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	5	5	11	-6	3
12	Hapoel Ramat Gan	5	4	9	-5	3
13	Bnei Sakhnin	5	3	6	-3	4
14	Hapoel Petah Tikva	5	2	8	-6	3