Statistics / Football / Switzerland. Super League / FC Luzern vs Grasshoppers

FC Luzern vs Grasshoppers Statistics & Analysis

FC Luzern FC Luzern
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:00
5 1.73
1 1.67
xG Accuracy: 34%
Grasshoppers Grasshoppers
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Luzern FC Luzern ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8701725

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FC Luzern win · FC Luzern 5–1 Grasshoppers
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Grasshoppers (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Grasshoppers (1X2) by about 13.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Luzern (1X2) 38.6 56.4 -17.8
Draw (1X2) 25.1 20.8 +4.4
Grasshoppers (1X2) 36.2 22.9 +13.4
Over 2.5 goals 66.0 72.1 -6.1
Under 2.5 goals 34.0 27.9 +6.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.2% on Grasshoppers (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.9%. The difference — about 13.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Luzern (1X2) 1.71 1.71 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.64 4.64 0.0
Grasshoppers (1X2) 4.22 4.22 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.33 1.33 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 3.44 3.44 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: FC Luzern vs Grasshoppers
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.6% · Draw 25.1% · Away 36.2%
  • xG (showing): FC Luzern 1.73 — Grasshoppers 1.67 (total xG ≈ 3.4)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Lugano 9 8 1 0 25
2 BSC Young Boys 9 5 4 0 19
3 FC Sion 9 6 1 2 19
4 FC Basel 1893 9 4 1 4 13
5 FC ST. Gallen 9 4 1 4 13
6 FC Luzern 9 3 3 3 12
7 FC Zurich 9 3 2 4 11
8 Servette FC 9 3 1 5 10
9 FC Thun 9 3 1 5 10
10 Grasshoppers 9 2 2 5 8
11 FC Vaduz 9 2 0 7 6
12 Lausanne 9 1 3 5 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 BSC Young Boys 9 31 18 +13 19
2 FC Lugano 9 27 7 +20 25
3 FC Sion 9 23 14 +9 19
4 FC Vaduz 9 18 21 -3 6
5 FC Basel 1893 9 17 17 0 13
6 FC Luzern 9 17 18 -1 12
7 FC ST. Gallen 9 16 19 -3 13
8 FC Thun 9 15 23 -8 10
9 FC Zurich 9 14 20 -6 11
10 Grasshoppers 9 13 24 -11 8
11 Servette FC 9 11 13 -2 10
12 Lausanne 9 7 15 -8 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC ST. Gallen 9 13.1 8.8 +4.3 13
2 FC Sion 9 12.0 7.9 +4.1 19
3 BSC Young Boys 9 10.9 6.8 +4.1 19
4 FC Lugano 9 9.0 5.6 +3.4 25
5 Servette FC 9 7.0 6.7 +0.3 10
6 FC Basel 1893 9 7.0 6.8 +0.2 13
7 Grasshoppers 9 8.8 9.1 -0.3 8
8 Lausanne 9 4.3 5.8 -1.5 6
9 FC Zurich 9 6.4 8.3 -1.9 11
10 FC Luzern 9 6.7 9.7 -3.0 12
11 FC Vaduz 9 8.4 12.1 -3.7 6
12 FC Thun 9 6.7 12.7 -6.0 10