Statistics / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Afula

Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Afula Statistics & Analysis

Ironi Modi'in Ironi Modi'in
Oct 09, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 76%
Hapoel Afula Hapoel Afula
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hapoel Afula Hapoel Afula ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12687025

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hapoel Afula win · Ironi Modi'in 1–2 Hapoel Afula
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Afula
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Ironi Modi'in 1.29 — Hapoel Afula 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.4% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 8 7 0 1 21
2 Bnei Yehuda 8 6 2 0 20
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 8 5 2 1 17
4 Kiryat Yam SC 8 5 0 3 15
5 Hapoel Ra'anana 8 5 0 3 15
6 Hapoel Afula 8 4 2 2 14
7 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 8 4 2 2 14
8 Kafr Qasim 8 4 1 3 13
9 Maccabi Bnei Raina 8 4 0 4 12
10 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 8 2 2 4 8
11 Ironi Modi'in 8 2 2 4 8
12 Maccabi Herzliya 8 2 2 4 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 8 2 1 5 7
14 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 8 2 0 6 6
15 Hapoel Kfar Saba 8 2 0 6 6
16 Hapoel Acre 8 0 0 8 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 8 23 13 +10 15
2 Bnei Yehuda 8 19 7 +12 20
3 Hapoel Ra'anana 8 19 11 +8 15
4 Ashdod 8 18 6 +12 21
5 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 8 17 17 0 14
6 Hapoel Afula 8 16 12 +4 14
7 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 8 15 9 +6 17
8 Maccabi Bnei Raina 8 13 13 0 12
9 Kafr Qasim 8 12 8 +4 13
10 Ironi Modi'in 8 12 15 -3 8
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 8 9 20 -11 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 8 8 11 -3 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 8 8 12 -4 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 8 7 9 -2 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 8 7 17 -10 6
16 Hapoel Acre 8 0 23 -23 0
Liga Leumit Israel. Liga Leumit Predictions