Statistics / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Bnei Yehuda vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat

Bnei Yehuda vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat Statistics & Analysis

Bnei Yehuda Bnei Yehuda
Oct 01, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bnei Yehuda Bnei Yehuda ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10756294

Closing Odds 1.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bnei Yehuda win · Bnei Yehuda 2–1 Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Maccabi Kiryat Gat (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Maccabi Kiryat Gat (1X2) by about 23.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bnei Yehuda (1X2) 36.1 71.6 -35.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 17.5 +12.1
Maccabi Kiryat Gat (1X2) 34.2 10.9 +23.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 61.6 -13.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 38.4 +13.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Maccabi Kiryat Gat (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.9%. The difference — about 23.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Bnei Yehuda (1X2) 1.28 1.28 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.23 5.23 0.0
Maccabi Kiryat Gat (1X2) 8.44 8.44 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.51 1.51 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.42 2.42 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Bnei Yehuda; market prices Bnei Yehuda instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Bnei Yehuda 1.32 xG vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat 1.28 → Bnei Yehuda 36.1%
  • Market: Bnei Yehuda ~71.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 7 6 0 1 18
2 Bnei Yehuda 7 5 2 0 17
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 5 1 1 16
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 5 0 2 15
5 Hapoel Afula 7 4 1 2 13
6 Kiryat Yam SC 7 4 0 3 12
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 4 0 3 12
8 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 3 2 2 11
9 Kafr Qasim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maccabi Herzliya 7 2 2 3 8
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 2 1 4 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 2 0 5 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 7 1 2 4 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 1 0 6 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 7 21 13 +8 12
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 18 9 +9 15
3 Ashdod 7 17 6 +11 18
4 Bnei Yehuda 7 17 6 +11 17
5 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 15 16 -1 11
6 Hapoel Afula 7 14 10 +4 13
7 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 13 7 +6 16
8 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 12 11 +1 12
9 Kafr Qasim 7 10 7 +3 10
10 Ironi Modi'in 7 10 14 -4 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 9 18 -9 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 7 8 10 -2 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 7 10 -3 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 6 17 -11 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 22 -22 0