Statistics / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Hapoel Afula

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Hapoel Afula Statistics & Analysis

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Aug 24, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 64%
Hapoel Afula Hapoel Afula
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth Hapoel Afula ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4455774

Closing Odds 2.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Hapoel Afula win · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–1 Hapoel Afula
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (1X2) by about 2.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (1X2) 38.5 35.8 +2.7
Draw (1X2) 29.6 27.3 +2.3
Hapoel Afula (1X2) 31.9 36.9 -5.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 46.4 +1.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 53.6 -1.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.5% on Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 35.8%. The difference — about 2.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (1X2) 2.56 2.56 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.36 3.36 0.0
Hapoel Afula (1X2) 2.48 2.48 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.02 2.02 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Hapoel Afula
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-24 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1.37 — Hapoel Afula 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 6 5 0 1 15
2 Bnei Yehuda 6 4 2 0 14
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 6 4 1 1 13
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 6 4 0 2 12
5 Maccabi Bnei Raina 6 4 0 2 12
6 Hapoel Afula 6 3 1 2 10
7 Kiryat Yam SC 6 3 0 3 9
8 Maccabi Herzliya 6 2 2 2 8
9 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 6 2 2 2 8
10 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 6 2 2 2 8
11 Kafr Qasim 6 2 1 3 7
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 6 2 1 3 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 6 2 0 4 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 6 1 2 3 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 6 1 0 5 3
16 Hapoel Acre 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 6 18 12 +6 9
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 6 16 8 +8 12
3 Bnei Yehuda 6 15 5 +10 14
4 Ashdod 6 14 5 +9 15
5 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 6 12 7 +5 13
6 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 6 12 15 -3 8
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 6 11 9 +2 12
8 Hapoel Afula 6 11 10 +1 10
9 Kafr Qasim 6 9 7 +2 7
10 Ironi Modi'in 6 9 11 -2 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 6 8 16 -8 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 6 7 7 0 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 6 7 9 -2 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 6 6 6 0 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 6 5 14 -9 3
16 Hapoel Acre 6 0 19 -19 0
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