Statistics / Football / Switzerland. Challenge League / Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Statistics & Analysis

Yverdon Sport Yverdon Sport
Sep 20, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 49%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yverdon Sport Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8665408

Closing Odds 2.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Yverdon Sport 0–0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.4 percentage points on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 7.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Yverdon Sport (1X2) 39.0 36.5 +2.5
Draw (1X2) 29.5 29.2 +0.3
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (1X2) 31.5 34.3 -2.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 55.4 -7.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 44.6 +7.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 44.6%. The difference — about 7.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Yverdon Sport (1X2) 2.45 2.61 -2.4
Draw (1X2) 3.26 3.26 -0.0
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (1X2) 2.99 2.78 +2.4
Over 2.5 goals 1.71 1.72 -0.5
Under 2.5 goals 2.17 2.14 +0.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Challenge League
  • Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Yverdon Sport 1.38 — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.6% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +9.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Challenge League Challenge League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 9 6 3 0 21
2 FC Winterthur 9 5 3 1 18
3 Yverdon Sport 9 4 4 1 16
4 SC Kriens 9 4 2 3 14
5 FC Aarau 9 3 3 3 12
6 Neuchatel Xamax FC 9 4 0 5 12
7 Rapperswil 9 3 1 5 10
8 Étoile Carouge 9 2 3 4 9
9 FC WIL 1900 9 2 3 4 9
10 Stade Nyonnais 9 0 2 7 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Winterthur 9 19 8 +11 18
2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 9 17 3 +14 21
3 SC Kriens 9 16 11 +5 14
4 Rapperswil 9 15 16 -1 10
5 FC WIL 1900 9 15 21 -6 9
6 Yverdon Sport 9 14 9 +5 16
7 FC Aarau 9 14 16 -2 12
8 Neuchatel Xamax FC 9 12 17 -5 12
9 Étoile Carouge 9 8 12 -4 9
10 Stade Nyonnais 9 6 23 -17 2