Statistics / Football / Switzerland. Challenge League / FC Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais

FC Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais Statistics & Analysis

FC Aarau FC Aarau
Aug 07, 2026 - 18:15
2 1.53
1 1.07
xG Accuracy: 86%
Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Aarau FC Aarau ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2681146

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FC Aarau win · FC Aarau 2–1 Stade Nyonnais
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Stade Nyonnais (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Aarau (1X2) 46.3 67.7 -21.4
Draw (1X2) 28.7 18.8 +9.9
Stade Nyonnais (1X2) 24.9 13.5 +11.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.6 -12.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 39.4 +12.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.4%. The difference — about 12.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Aarau (1X2) 1.4 1.4 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.04 5.04 0.0
Stade Nyonnais (1X2) 7.04 7.04 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.42 2.42 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Challenge League
  • Fixture: FC Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.3% · Draw 28.7% · Away 24.9%
  • xG (showing): FC Aarau 1.53 — Stade Nyonnais 1.07 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Challenge League Challenge League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 9 6 3 0 21
2 FC Winterthur 9 5 3 1 18
3 Yverdon Sport 9 4 4 1 16
4 SC Kriens 9 4 2 3 14
5 FC Aarau 9 3 3 3 12
6 Neuchatel Xamax FC 9 4 0 5 12
7 Rapperswil 9 3 1 5 10
8 Étoile Carouge 9 2 3 4 9
9 FC WIL 1900 9 2 3 4 9
10 Stade Nyonnais 9 0 2 7 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Winterthur 9 19 8 +11 18
2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 9 17 3 +14 21
3 SC Kriens 9 16 11 +5 14
4 Rapperswil 9 15 16 -1 10
5 FC WIL 1900 9 15 21 -6 9
6 Yverdon Sport 9 14 9 +5 16
7 FC Aarau 9 14 16 -2 12
8 Neuchatel Xamax FC 9 12 17 -5 12
9 Étoile Carouge 9 8 12 -4 9
10 Stade Nyonnais 9 6 23 -17 2