Enisey vs Zenit 2 Statistics & Analysis

Enisey

Jul 03, 2026 - 08:30

4 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 45%

Zenit 2

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Enisey Enisey ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1665473

Closing Odds 1.33

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Enisey win · Enisey 4–1 Zenit 2

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Zenit 2 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Enisey (1X2)	40.8	70.0	-29.2
Draw (1X2)	28.8	17.9	+10.9
Zenit 2 (1X2)	30.4	12.1	+18.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	66.7	-18.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	33.3	+18.5
BTTS Yes	54.5	57.2	-2.7
BTTS No	45.5	42.8	+2.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.3%. The difference — about 18.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Enisey (1X2)	1.33	1.33
Draw (1X2)	5.2	5.2
Zenit 2 (1X2)	7.7	7.7
Over 2.5 goals	1.36	1.36
Under 2.5 goals	2.72	2.72
BTTS Yes	1.61	1.61
BTTS No	2.15	2.15

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Enisey vs Zenit 2
Kickoff: 2026-07-03 08:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.8% · Draw 28.8% · Away 30.4%
xG (showing): Enisey 1.35 — Zenit 2 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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