Correcaminos Uat vs Necaxa Statistics & Analysis

Correcaminos Uat

Jul 01, 2026 - 20:00

3 1.31

6 1.29

xG Accuracy: 17%

Necaxa

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Correcaminos Uat Necaxa ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 05:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1554894

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Necaxa win · Correcaminos Uat 3–6 Necaxa

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Correcaminos Uat vs Necaxa
Kickoff: 2026-07-01 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Correcaminos Uat 1.31 — Necaxa 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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