Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Champions League / Levski Sofia vs Borac Banja Luka

Levski Sofia vs Borac Banja Luka Statistics & Analysis

Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
Jul 14, 2026 - 17:30
4 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 34%
Borac Banja Luka Borac Banja Luka
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1483729

Closing Odds 1.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Levski Sofia win · Levski Sofia 4–0 Borac Banja Luka
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.02 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Borac Banja Luka (1X2) by about 11.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Levski Sofia (1X2) 52.9 73.7 -20.8
Draw (1X2) 26.8 17.6 +9.2
Borac Banja Luka (1X2) 20.3 8.8 +11.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 49.1 -0.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.9 +0.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 20.3% on Borac Banja Luka (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.8%. The difference — about 11.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Levski Sofia (1X2) 1.29 1.25 +1.8
Draw (1X2) 4.78 5.24 -1.8
Borac Banja Luka (1X2) 10.68 10.52 +0.1
Over 2.5 goals 2.05 1.92 +3.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.75 1.85 -3.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: UEFA Champions League
  • Fixture: Levski Sofia vs Borac Banja Luka
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-14 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 52.9% · Draw 26.8% · Away 20.3%
  • xG (showing): Levski Sofia 1.33 — Borac Banja Luka 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Champions League UEFA Champions League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Paris Saint Germain 1 1 0 0 3
2 Bayern München 1 1 0 0 3
3 Barcelona 1 1 0 0 3
4 Manchester United 1 1 0 0 3
5 Como 1 1 0 0 3
6 VfB Stuttgart 1 1 0 0 3
7 Sporting CP 1 1 0 0 3
8 Manchester City 1 1 0 0 3
9 Aston Villa 1 1 0 0 3
10 Lens 1 1 0 0 3
11 Real Betis 1 1 0 0 3
12 Borussia Dortmund 1 1 0 0 3
13 Liverpool 1 1 0 0 3
14 Real Madrid 1 1 0 0 3
15 Arsenal 1 1 0 0 3
16 AEK Athens FC 1 1 0 0 3
17 AS Roma 1 0 1 0 1
18 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 0 1 0 1
19 PSV Eindhoven 1 0 1 0 1
20 Fenerbahce 1 0 1 0 1
21 Villarreal 1 0 0 1 0
22 Lille 1 0 0 1 0
23 Slavia Praha 1 0 0 1 0
24 Club Brugge KV 1 0 0 1 0
25 Inter 1 0 0 1 0
26 Atletico Madrid 1 0 0 1 0
27 Napoli 1 0 0 1 0
28 Lask Linz 1 0 0 1 0
29 Viking 1 0 0 1 0
30 Galatasaray 1 0 0 1 0
31 FC Porto 1 0 0 1 0
32 RB Leipzig 1 0 0 1 0
33 Feyenoord 1 0 0 1 0
34 Sabah FA 1 0 0 1 0
35 Slovan Bratislava 1 0 0 1 0
36 Bodo/Glimt 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Paris Saint Germain 1 6 1 +5 3
2 Bayern München 1 5 0 +5 3
3 Barcelona 1 5 1 +4 3
4 Manchester United 1 4 0 +4 3
5 Como 1 4 1 +3 3
6 VfB Stuttgart 1 3 1 +2 3
7 Sporting CP 1 3 1 +2 3
8 Aston Villa 1 3 2 +1 3
9 Lens 1 3 2 +1 3
10 Real Betis 1 3 2 +1 3
11 Borussia Dortmund 1 3 2 +1 3
12 Manchester City 1 2 0 +2 3
13 Liverpool 1 2 1 +1 3
14 Real Madrid 1 2 1 +1 3
15 Villarreal 1 2 3 -1 0
16 Lille 1 2 3 -1 0
17 Slavia Praha 1 2 3 -1 0
18 Club Brugge KV 1 2 3 -1 0
19 Arsenal 1 1 0 +1 3
20 AEK Athens FC 1 1 0 +1 3
21 AS Roma 1 1 1 0 1
22 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 1 1 0 1
23 PSV Eindhoven 1 1 1 0 1
24 Fenerbahce 1 1 1 0 1
25 Inter 1 1 2 -1 0
26 Atletico Madrid 1 1 2 -1 0
27 Viking 1 1 3 -2 0
28 Galatasaray 1 1 3 -2 0
29 RB Leipzig 1 1 4 -3 0
30 Feyenoord 1 1 5 -4 0
31 Slovan Bratislava 1 1 6 -5 0
32 Napoli 1 0 1 -1 0
33 Lask Linz 1 0 1 -1 0
34 FC Porto 1 0 2 -2 0
35 Sabah FA 1 0 4 -4 0
36 Bodo/Glimt 1 0 5 -5 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Manchester City 1 2.3 0.3 +2.0 3
2 Aston Villa 1 3.2 1.5 +1.7 3
3 Borussia Dortmund 1 2.8 1.3 +1.5 3
4 Real Madrid 1 2.9 1.8 +1.1 3
5 Real Betis 1 1.8 0.8 +1.0 3
6 AEK Athens FC 1 1.7 0.7 +1.0 3
7 Liverpool 1 1.6 0.9 +0.7 3
8 Sporting CP 1 1.8 1.2 +0.6 3
9 Galatasaray 1 1.2 1.8 -0.6 0
10 Atletico Madrid 1 0.9 1.6 -0.7 0
11 Lille 1 0.8 1.8 -1.0 0
12 Lask Linz 1 0.7 1.7 -1.0 0
13 Inter 1 1.8 2.9 -1.1 0
14 Villarreal 1 1.3 2.8 -1.5 0
15 Club Brugge KV 1 1.5 3.2 -1.7 0
16 FC Porto 1 0.3 2.3 -2.0 0
17 Paris Saint Germain 1 — — — 3
18 Bayern München 1 — — — 3
19 Barcelona 1 — — — 3
20 Manchester United 1 — — — 3
21 Como 1 — — — 3
22 VfB Stuttgart 1 — — — 3
23 Lens 1 — — — 3
24 Arsenal 1 — — — 3
25 AS Roma 1 — — — 1
26 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 — — — 1
27 PSV Eindhoven 1 — — — 1
28 Fenerbahce 1 — — — 1
29 Slavia Praha 1 — — — 0
30 Napoli 1 — — — 0
31 Viking 1 — — — 0
32 RB Leipzig 1 — — — 0
33 Feyenoord 1 — — — 0
34 Sabah FA 1 — — — 0
35 Slovan Bratislava 1 — — — 0
36 Bodo/Glimt 1 — — — 0