Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Champions League / Ararat-Armenia vs Riga

Ararat-Armenia vs Riga Statistics & Analysis

Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia
Jul 07, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Riga Riga
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1488584

Closing Odds 2.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ararat-Armenia win · Ararat-Armenia 2–0 Riga
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ararat-Armenia (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ararat-Armenia (1X2) by about 3.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ararat-Armenia (1X2) 36.1 32.2 +3.9
Draw (1X2) 29.7 28.9 +0.8
Riga (1X2) 34.2 38.8 -4.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.7 -0.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.3 +0.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Ararat-Armenia (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.2%. The difference — about 3.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ararat-Armenia (1X2) 2.88 2.88 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.21 3.21 0.0
Riga (1X2) 2.39 2.39 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.95 1.95 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.85 1.85 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: UEFA Champions League
  • Fixture: Ararat-Armenia vs Riga
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-07 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Ararat-Armenia 1.32 — Riga 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
UEFA Champions League UEFA Champions League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Paris Saint Germain 1 1 0 0 3
2 Bayern München 1 1 0 0 3
3 Barcelona 1 1 0 0 3
4 Manchester United 1 1 0 0 3
5 Como 1 1 0 0 3
6 VfB Stuttgart 1 1 0 0 3
7 Sporting CP 1 1 0 0 3
8 Manchester City 1 1 0 0 3
9 Aston Villa 1 1 0 0 3
10 Lens 1 1 0 0 3
11 Real Betis 1 1 0 0 3
12 Borussia Dortmund 1 1 0 0 3
13 Liverpool 1 1 0 0 3
14 Real Madrid 1 1 0 0 3
15 Arsenal 1 1 0 0 3
16 AEK Athens FC 1 1 0 0 3
17 AS Roma 1 0 1 0 1
18 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 0 1 0 1
19 PSV Eindhoven 1 0 1 0 1
20 Fenerbahce 1 0 1 0 1
21 Villarreal 1 0 0 1 0
22 Lille 1 0 0 1 0
23 Slavia Praha 1 0 0 1 0
24 Club Brugge KV 1 0 0 1 0
25 Inter 1 0 0 1 0
26 Atletico Madrid 1 0 0 1 0
27 Napoli 1 0 0 1 0
28 Lask Linz 1 0 0 1 0
29 Viking 1 0 0 1 0
30 Galatasaray 1 0 0 1 0
31 FC Porto 1 0 0 1 0
32 RB Leipzig 1 0 0 1 0
33 Feyenoord 1 0 0 1 0
34 Sabah FA 1 0 0 1 0
35 Slovan Bratislava 1 0 0 1 0
36 Bodo/Glimt 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Paris Saint Germain 1 6 1 +5 3
2 Bayern München 1 5 0 +5 3
3 Barcelona 1 5 1 +4 3
4 Manchester United 1 4 0 +4 3
5 Como 1 4 1 +3 3
6 VfB Stuttgart 1 3 1 +2 3
7 Sporting CP 1 3 1 +2 3
8 Aston Villa 1 3 2 +1 3
9 Lens 1 3 2 +1 3
10 Real Betis 1 3 2 +1 3
11 Borussia Dortmund 1 3 2 +1 3
12 Manchester City 1 2 0 +2 3
13 Liverpool 1 2 1 +1 3
14 Real Madrid 1 2 1 +1 3
15 Villarreal 1 2 3 -1 0
16 Lille 1 2 3 -1 0
17 Slavia Praha 1 2 3 -1 0
18 Club Brugge KV 1 2 3 -1 0
19 Arsenal 1 1 0 +1 3
20 AEK Athens FC 1 1 0 +1 3
21 AS Roma 1 1 1 0 1
22 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 1 1 0 1
23 PSV Eindhoven 1 1 1 0 1
24 Fenerbahce 1 1 1 0 1
25 Inter 1 1 2 -1 0
26 Atletico Madrid 1 1 2 -1 0
27 Viking 1 1 3 -2 0
28 Galatasaray 1 1 3 -2 0
29 RB Leipzig 1 1 4 -3 0
30 Feyenoord 1 1 5 -4 0
31 Slovan Bratislava 1 1 6 -5 0
32 Napoli 1 0 1 -1 0
33 Lask Linz 1 0 1 -1 0
34 FC Porto 1 0 2 -2 0
35 Sabah FA 1 0 4 -4 0
36 Bodo/Glimt 1 0 5 -5 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Manchester City 1 2.3 0.3 +2.0 3
2 Aston Villa 1 3.2 1.5 +1.7 3
3 Borussia Dortmund 1 2.8 1.3 +1.5 3
4 Real Madrid 1 2.9 1.8 +1.1 3
5 Real Betis 1 1.8 0.8 +1.0 3
6 AEK Athens FC 1 1.7 0.7 +1.0 3
7 Liverpool 1 1.6 0.9 +0.7 3
8 Sporting CP 1 1.8 1.2 +0.6 3
9 Galatasaray 1 1.2 1.8 -0.6 0
10 Atletico Madrid 1 0.9 1.6 -0.7 0
11 Lille 1 0.8 1.8 -1.0 0
12 Lask Linz 1 0.7 1.7 -1.0 0
13 Inter 1 1.8 2.9 -1.1 0
14 Villarreal 1 1.3 2.8 -1.5 0
15 Club Brugge KV 1 1.5 3.2 -1.7 0
16 FC Porto 1 0.3 2.3 -2.0 0
17 Paris Saint Germain 1 — — — 3
18 Bayern München 1 — — — 3
19 Barcelona 1 — — — 3
20 Manchester United 1 — — — 3
21 Como 1 — — — 3
22 VfB Stuttgart 1 — — — 3
23 Lens 1 — — — 3
24 Arsenal 1 — — — 3
25 AS Roma 1 — — — 1
26 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 — — — 1
27 PSV Eindhoven 1 — — — 1
28 Fenerbahce 1 — — — 1
29 Slavia Praha 1 — — — 0
30 Napoli 1 — — — 0
31 Viking 1 — — — 0
32 RB Leipzig 1 — — — 0
33 Feyenoord 1 — — — 0
34 Sabah FA 1 — — — 0
35 Slovan Bratislava 1 — — — 0
36 Bodo/Glimt 1 — — — 0