Statistics / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / FK Vozdovac vs OFK Vršac

FK Vozdovac vs OFK Vršac Statistics & Analysis

FK Vozdovac FK Vozdovac
Oct 11, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 60%
OFK Vršac OFK Vršac
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FK Vozdovac FK Vozdovac ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13229285

Closing Odds 1.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FK Vozdovac win · FK Vozdovac 2–0 OFK Vršac
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices OFK Vršac (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on OFK Vršac (1X2) by about 5.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FK Vozdovac (1X2) 39.0 45.0 -6.1
Draw (1X2) 29.5 28.8 +0.8
OFK Vršac (1X2) 31.5 26.2 +5.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on OFK Vršac (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.2%. The difference — about 5.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: betmgm us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FK Vozdovac (1X2) 1.98 1.98 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.1 3.1 0.0
OFK Vršac (1X2) 3.4 3.4 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Prva Liga
  • Fixture: FK Vozdovac vs OFK Vršac
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): FK Vozdovac 1.38 — OFK Vršac 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.6% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +13.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 13 9 1 3 28
2 TSC Backa Topola 13 7 6 0 27
3 Javor 13 6 6 1 24
4 Semendrija 1924 12 7 3 2 24
5 OFK Vršac 13 7 1 5 22
6 Dubočica 13 5 4 4 19
7 FK Vozdovac 13 5 3 5 18
8 Metalac GM 13 5 3 5 18
9 Napredak 13 5 3 5 18
10 Loznica 12 3 6 3 15
11 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 13 4 3 6 15
12 Naftagas 13 3 5 5 14
13 Teleoptik 13 3 4 6 13
14 Grafičar 13 3 2 8 11
15 Jedinstvo Ub 13 2 2 9 8
16 OFK Bor 1919 13 2 2 9 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 13 30 15 +15 24
2 TSC Backa Topola 13 28 14 +14 27
3 Borac Cacak 13 24 17 +7 28
4 Semendrija 1924 12 21 13 +8 24
5 Naftagas 13 19 15 +4 14
6 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 13 19 25 -6 15
7 Teleoptik 13 17 23 -6 13
8 Grafičar 13 17 24 -7 11
9 OFK Vršac 13 16 13 +3 22
10 Metalac GM 13 16 15 +1 18
11 Loznica 12 16 19 -3 15
12 Dubočica 13 15 16 -1 19
13 FK Vozdovac 13 13 11 +2 18
14 Napredak 13 13 15 -2 18
15 Jedinstvo Ub 13 12 24 -12 8
16 OFK Bor 1919 13 8 25 -17 8
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