Statistics / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / Naftagas vs Napredak

Naftagas vs Napredak Statistics & Analysis

Naftagas Naftagas
Oct 11, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 49%
Napredak Napredak
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Naftagas Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13198057

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Naftagas 0–0 Napredak
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Prva Liga
  • Fixture: Naftagas vs Napredak
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Naftagas 1.32 — Napredak 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.3% · Probability edge: +4.9 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 13 9 1 3 28
2 TSC Backa Topola 13 7 6 0 27
3 Javor 13 6 6 1 24
4 Semendrija 1924 12 7 3 2 24
5 OFK Vršac 13 7 1 5 22
6 Dubočica 13 5 4 4 19
7 FK Vozdovac 13 5 3 5 18
8 Metalac GM 13 5 3 5 18
9 Napredak 13 5 3 5 18
10 Loznica 12 3 6 3 15
11 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 13 4 3 6 15
12 Naftagas 13 3 5 5 14
13 Teleoptik 13 3 4 6 13
14 Grafičar 13 3 2 8 11
15 Jedinstvo Ub 13 2 2 9 8
16 OFK Bor 1919 13 2 2 9 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 13 30 15 +15 24
2 TSC Backa Topola 13 28 14 +14 27
3 Borac Cacak 13 24 17 +7 28
4 Semendrija 1924 12 21 13 +8 24
5 Naftagas 13 19 15 +4 14
6 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 13 19 25 -6 15
7 Teleoptik 13 17 23 -6 13
8 Grafičar 13 17 24 -7 11
9 OFK Vršac 13 16 13 +3 22
10 Metalac GM 13 16 15 +1 18
11 Loznica 12 16 19 -3 15
12 Dubočica 13 15 16 -1 19
13 FK Vozdovac 13 13 11 +2 18
14 Napredak 13 13 15 -2 18
15 Jedinstvo Ub 13 12 24 -12 8
16 OFK Bor 1919 13 8 25 -17 8
Prva Liga Serbia. Prva Liga Predictions