Statistics / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / Loznica vs Semendrija 1924

Loznica vs Semendrija 1924 Statistics & Analysis

Loznica Loznica
Oct 12, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 64%
Semendrija 1924 Semendrija 1924
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Loznica Loznica ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13243556

Closing Odds 2.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Loznica win · Loznica 1–0 Semendrija 1924
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Loznica (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Loznica (1X2) by about 7.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Loznica (1X2) 38.5 31.4 +7.1
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.8 -0.2
Semendrija 1924 (1X2) 31.9 38.9 -6.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.5% on Loznica (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.4%. The difference — about 7.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: stake com

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Loznica (1X2) 2.9 2.9 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.05 3.05 0.0
Semendrija 1924 (1X2) 2.34 2.34 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Prva Liga
  • Fixture: Loznica vs Semendrija 1924
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Loznica 1.37 — Semendrija 1924 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 13 9 1 3 28
2 TSC Backa Topola 13 7 6 0 27
3 Javor 13 6 6 1 24
4 Semendrija 1924 12 7 3 2 24
5 OFK Vršac 13 7 1 5 22
6 Dubočica 13 5 4 4 19
7 FK Vozdovac 13 5 3 5 18
8 Metalac GM 13 5 3 5 18
9 Napredak 13 5 3 5 18
10 Loznica 12 3 6 3 15
11 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 13 4 3 6 15
12 Naftagas 13 3 5 5 14
13 Teleoptik 13 3 4 6 13
14 Grafičar 13 3 2 8 11
15 Jedinstvo Ub 13 2 2 9 8
16 OFK Bor 1919 13 2 2 9 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 13 30 15 +15 24
2 TSC Backa Topola 13 28 14 +14 27
3 Borac Cacak 13 24 17 +7 28
4 Semendrija 1924 12 21 13 +8 24
5 Naftagas 13 19 15 +4 14
6 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 13 19 25 -6 15
7 Teleoptik 13 17 23 -6 13
8 Grafičar 13 17 24 -7 11
9 OFK Vršac 13 16 13 +3 22
10 Metalac GM 13 16 15 +1 18
11 Loznica 12 16 19 -3 15
12 Dubočica 13 15 16 -1 19
13 FK Vozdovac 13 13 11 +2 18
14 Napredak 13 13 15 -2 18
15 Jedinstvo Ub 13 12 24 -12 8
16 OFK Bor 1919 13 8 25 -17 8
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