Statistics / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / OFK Vršac vs Metalac GM

OFK Vršac vs Metalac GM Statistics & Analysis

OFK Vršac OFK Vršac
Oct 04, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 49%
Metalac GM Metalac GM
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 OFK Vršac Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11253261

Closing Odds 2.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · OFK Vršac 0–0 Metalac GM
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Metalac GM (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 6.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
OFK Vršac (1X2) 39.5 38.7 +0.8
Draw (1X2) 29.5 31.6 -2.1
Metalac GM (1X2) 31.0 29.7 +1.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.5 +6.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.5 -6.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.5%. The difference — about 6.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
OFK Vršac (1X2) 2.3 2.3 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.82 2.82 0.0
Metalac GM (1X2) 3.0 3.0 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.21 2.21 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Prva Liga
  • Fixture: OFK Vršac vs Metalac GM
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): OFK Vršac 1.39 — Metalac GM 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +7.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 12 8 1 3 25
2 Javor 12 6 5 1 23
3 OFK Vršac 12 7 1 4 22
4 TSC Backa Topola 11 5 6 0 21
5 Semendrija 1924 11 6 3 2 21
6 Metalac GM 12 5 3 4 18
7 Dubočica 12 4 4 4 16
8 FK Vozdovac 11 4 3 4 15
9 Loznica 11 3 6 2 15
10 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 12 4 3 5 15
11 Napredak 11 4 2 5 14
12 Naftagas 12 3 4 5 13
13 Grafičar 11 3 1 7 10
14 Teleoptik 12 2 4 6 10
15 Jedinstvo Ub 12 2 2 8 8
16 OFK Bor 1919 12 2 2 8 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 12 29 14 +15 23
2 Borac Cacak 12 21 16 +5 25
3 TSC Backa Topola 11 20 12 +8 21
4 Semendrija 1924 11 20 13 +7 21
5 Naftagas 12 19 15 +4 13
6 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 12 18 23 -5 15
7 OFK Vršac 12 16 11 +5 22
8 Metalac GM 12 16 12 +4 18
9 Loznica 11 16 16 0 15
10 Grafičar 11 15 19 -4 10
11 Teleoptik 12 14 23 -9 10
12 Dubočica 12 13 15 -2 16
13 FK Vozdovac 11 11 10 +1 15
14 Jedinstvo Ub 12 11 21 -10 8
15 Napredak 11 10 15 -5 14
16 OFK Bor 1919 12 7 21 -14 8
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