TSC Backa Topola vs Grafičar Statistics & Analysis

TSC Backa Topola

Oct 05, 2026 - 16:00

4 1.31

1 1.29

xG Accuracy: 44%

Grafičar

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 TSC Backa Topola TSC Backa Topola ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11253226

Closing Odds 1.33

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result TSC Backa Topola win · TSC Backa Topola 4–1 Grafičar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Grafičar (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Grafičar (1X2) by about 23.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
TSC Backa Topola (1X2)	35.6	69.6	-34.0
Draw (1X2)	29.7	18.9	+10.8
Grafičar (1X2)	34.7	11.6	+23.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Grafičar (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.6%. The difference — about 23.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
TSC Backa Topola (1X2)	1.33	1.33
Draw (1X2)	4.9	4.9
Grafičar (1X2)	8.0	8.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours TSC Backa Topola; market prices TSC Backa Topola instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: TSC Backa Topola 1.31 xG vs Grafičar 1.29 → TSC Backa Topola 35.6%
Market: TSC Backa Topola ~69.6% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Prva Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Borac Cacak	12	8	1	3	25
2	TSC Backa Topola	12	6	6	0	24
3	Semendrija 1924	12	7	3	2	24
4	Javor	12	6	5	1	23
5	OFK Vršac	12	7	1	4	22
6	Metalac GM	12	5	3	4	18
7	Napredak	12	5	2	5	17
8	Dubočica	12	4	4	4	16
9	FK Vozdovac	12	4	3	5	15
10	Loznica	12	3	6	3	15
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	12	4	3	5	15
12	Naftagas	12	3	4	5	13
13	Grafičar	12	3	1	8	10
14	Teleoptik	12	2	4	6	10
15	Jedinstvo Ub	12	2	2	8	8
16	OFK Bor 1919	12	2	2	8	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Javor	12	29	14	+15	23
2	TSC Backa Topola	12	24	13	+11	24
3	Semendrija 1924	12	21	13	+8	24
4	Borac Cacak	12	21	16	+5	25
5	Naftagas	12	19	15	+4	13
6	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	12	18	23	-5	15
7	OFK Vršac	12	16	11	+5	22
8	Metalac GM	12	16	12	+4	18
9	Loznica	12	16	19	-3	15
10	Grafičar	12	16	23	-7	10
11	Teleoptik	12	14	23	-9	10
12	Napredak	12	13	15	-2	17
13	Dubočica	12	13	15	-2	16
14	FK Vozdovac	12	11	11	0	15
15	Jedinstvo Ub	12	11	21	-10	8
16	OFK Bor 1919	12	7	21	-14	8