Statistics / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / Napredak vs Loznica

Napredak vs Loznica Statistics & Analysis

Napredak Napredak
Oct 05, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 43%
Loznica Loznica
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Loznica Napredak ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11253144

Closing Odds 1.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Napredak win · Napredak 3–0 Loznica
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.87 percentage points on Napredak (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Loznica (1X2) by about 9.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Napredak (1X2) 33.9 45.0 -11.1
Draw (1X2) 29.5 28.3 +1.2
Loznica (1X2) 36.5 26.6 +9.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.5% on Loznica (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.6%. The difference — about 9.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings → stake com

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Napredak (1X2) 2.0 1.98 -0.9
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.15 +0.5
Loznica (1X2) 3.5 3.35 +0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Prva Liga
  • Fixture: Napredak vs Loznica
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-05 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.9% · Draw 29.5% · Away 36.5%
  • xG (showing): Napredak 1.25 — Loznica 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.7% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 12 8 1 3 25
2 TSC Backa Topola 12 6 6 0 24
3 Semendrija 1924 12 7 3 2 24
4 Javor 12 6 5 1 23
5 OFK Vršac 12 7 1 4 22
6 Metalac GM 12 5 3 4 18
7 Napredak 12 5 2 5 17
8 Dubočica 12 4 4 4 16
9 FK Vozdovac 12 4 3 5 15
10 Loznica 12 3 6 3 15
11 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 12 4 3 5 15
12 Naftagas 12 3 4 5 13
13 Grafičar 12 3 1 8 10
14 Teleoptik 12 2 4 6 10
15 Jedinstvo Ub 12 2 2 8 8
16 OFK Bor 1919 12 2 2 8 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 12 29 14 +15 23
2 TSC Backa Topola 12 24 13 +11 24
3 Semendrija 1924 12 21 13 +8 24
4 Borac Cacak 12 21 16 +5 25
5 Naftagas 12 19 15 +4 13
6 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 12 18 23 -5 15
7 OFK Vršac 12 16 11 +5 22
8 Metalac GM 12 16 12 +4 18
9 Loznica 12 16 19 -3 15
10 Grafičar 12 16 23 -7 10
11 Teleoptik 12 14 23 -9 10
12 Napredak 12 13 15 -2 17
13 Dubočica 12 13 15 -2 16
14 FK Vozdovac 12 11 11 0 15
15 Jedinstvo Ub 12 11 21 -10 8
16 OFK Bor 1919 12 7 21 -14 8
Prva Liga Serbia. Prva Liga Predictions