TSC Backa Topola vs Semendrija 1924 Statistics & Analysis

TSC Backa Topola

Aug 30, 2026 - 19:00

1 1.30

xG Accuracy: 85%

Semendrija 1924

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 TSC Backa Topola Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5154793

Closing Odds 1.9

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · TSC Backa Topola 1–1 Semendrija 1924

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Semendrija 1924 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Semendrija 1924 (1X2) by about 10.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
TSC Backa Topola (1X2)	35.2	47.5	-12.4
Draw (1X2)	29.6	27.4	+2.3
Semendrija 1924 (1X2)	35.2	25.1	+10.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	46.0	+2.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.0	-2.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on Semendrija 1924 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.1%. The difference — about 10.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
TSC Backa Topola (1X2)	1.9	1.9
Draw (1X2)	3.3	3.3
Semendrija 1924 (1X2)	3.6	3.6
Over 2.5 goals	2.05	2.05
Under 2.5 goals	1.75	1.75

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Prva Liga
Fixture: TSC Backa Topola vs Semendrija 1924
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): TSC Backa Topola 1.3 — Semendrija 1924 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.2% · Probability edge: +4.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Prva Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Borac Cacak	11	8	1	2	25
2	TSC Backa Topola	11	5	6	0	21
3	Semendrija 1924	11	6	3	2	21
4	OFK Vršac	11	7	0	4	21
5	Javor	10	5	4	1	19
6	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	10	4	3	3	15
7	Metalac GM	10	4	2	4	14
8	FK Vozdovac	10	4	2	4	14
9	Dubočica	10	4	2	4	14
10	Napredak	10	4	1	5	13
11	Loznica	10	2	6	2	12
12	OFK Bor 1919	10	2	2	6	8
13	Naftagas	10	1	4	5	7
14	Jedinstvo Ub	10	2	1	7	7
15	Grafičar	10	2	1	7	7
16	Teleoptik	10	1	4	5	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Javor	10	25	12	+13	19
2	TSC Backa Topola	11	20	12	+8	21
3	Borac Cacak	11	20	13	+7	25
4	Semendrija 1924	11	20	13	+7	21
5	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	10	18	15	+3	15
6	OFK Vršac	11	16	11	+5	21
7	Metalac GM	10	14	12	+2	14
8	Loznica	10	14	16	-2	12
9	Dubočica	10	12	14	-2	14
10	FK Vozdovac	10	11	10	+1	14
11	Jedinstvo Ub	10	11	18	-7	7
12	Grafičar	10	11	18	-7	7
13	Teleoptik	10	11	19	-8	7
14	Napredak	10	10	15	-5	13
15	Naftagas	10	10	15	-5	7
16	OFK Bor 1919	10	7	17	-10	8