Statistics / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / TSC Backa Topola vs Javor

TSC Backa Topola vs Javor Statistics & Analysis

TSC Backa Topola TSC Backa Topola
Aug 09, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.25
1 1.00
xG Accuracy: 93%
Javor Javor
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 TSC Backa Topola Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2825620

Closing Odds 1.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · TSC Backa Topola 1–1 Javor
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.81 percentage points on TSC Backa Topola (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
TSC Backa Topola (1X2) 40.3 49.3 -9.0
Draw (1X2) 31.8 27.2 +4.6
Javor (1X2) 27.9 23.4 +4.4
Over 2.5 goals 39.1 48.5 -9.4
Under 2.5 goals 60.9 51.5 +9.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 60.9% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 51.5%. The difference — about 9.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
TSC Backa Topola (1X2) 1.83 1.82 +0.8
Draw (1X2) 3.25 3.3 -0.1
Javor (1X2) 3.68 3.83 -0.7
Over 2.5 goals 1.88 1.93 -0.8
Under 2.5 goals 1.83 1.82 +0.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Prva Liga
  • Fixture: TSC Backa Topola vs Javor
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.3% · Draw 31.8% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): TSC Backa Topola 1.25 — Javor 1.0 (total xG ≈ 2.25)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 60.9% · Implied: 51.4% · Probability edge: +9.5 pts · Est. EV: +15.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.8% · No 53.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 11 8 1 2 25
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 5 6 0 21
3 Semendrija 1924 11 6 3 2 21
4 OFK Vršac 11 7 0 4 21
5 Javor 10 5 4 1 19
6 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 4 3 3 15
7 Metalac GM 10 4 2 4 14
8 FK Vozdovac 10 4 2 4 14
9 Dubočica 10 4 2 4 14
10 Napredak 10 4 1 5 13
11 Loznica 10 2 6 2 12
12 OFK Bor 1919 10 2 2 6 8
13 Naftagas 10 1 4 5 7
14 Jedinstvo Ub 10 2 1 7 7
15 Grafičar 10 2 1 7 7
16 Teleoptik 10 1 4 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 10 25 12 +13 19
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 20 12 +8 21
3 Borac Cacak 11 20 13 +7 25
4 Semendrija 1924 11 20 13 +7 21
5 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 18 15 +3 15
6 OFK Vršac 11 16 11 +5 21
7 Metalac GM 10 14 12 +2 14
8 Loznica 10 14 16 -2 12
9 Dubočica 10 12 14 -2 14
10 FK Vozdovac 10 11 10 +1 14
11 Jedinstvo Ub 10 11 18 -7 7
12 Grafičar 10 11 18 -7 7
13 Teleoptik 10 11 19 -8 7
14 Napredak 10 10 15 -5 13
15 Naftagas 10 10 15 -5 7
16 OFK Bor 1919 10 7 17 -10 8
Prva Liga Serbia. Prva Liga Predictions