Statistics / Football / Japan. J1 League / Gamba Osaka vs Urawa

Gamba Osaka vs Urawa Statistics & Analysis

Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka
Aug 07, 2026 - 10:30
4 2.22
3 1.11
xG Accuracy: 36%
Urawa Urawa
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2668908

Closing Odds 2.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Gamba Osaka win · Gamba Osaka 4–3 Urawa
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.7 percentage points on Gamba Osaka (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Gamba Osaka (1X2) by about 19.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Gamba Osaka (1X2) 61.3 41.5 +19.8
Draw (1X2) 21.9 28.4 -6.5
Urawa (1X2) 16.8 30.1 -13.3
Over 2.5 goals 64.7 45.4 +19.3
Under 2.5 goals 35.3 54.6 -19.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 61.3% on Gamba Osaka (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 41.5%. The difference — about 19.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Gamba Osaka (1X2) 2.42 2.32 +1.7
Draw (1X2) 3.33 3.39 -0.5
Urawa (1X2) 3.08 3.2 -1.2
Over 2.5 goals 2.07 2.12 -1.3
Under 2.5 goals 1.81 1.76 +1.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: J1 League
  • Fixture: Gamba Osaka vs Urawa
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 61.3% · Draw 21.9% · Away 16.8%
  • xG (showing): Gamba Osaka 2.22 — Urawa 1.11 (total xG ≈ 3.33)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 64.7% · Implied: 46.4% · Probability edge: +18.3 pts · Est. EV: +37.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.9% · No 39.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
J1 League J1 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vissel Kobe 8 6 1 1 19
2 Kashiwa Reysol 8 6 0 2 18
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 5 2 1 17
4 Machida Zelvia 8 5 2 1 17
5 FC Tokyo 8 5 2 1 17
6 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 4 2 2 14
7 Kawasaki Frontale 8 3 4 1 13
8 Kashima 8 4 1 3 13
9 Fagiano Okayama 8 4 1 3 13
10 Urawa 8 4 0 4 12
11 Cerezo Osaka 8 3 2 3 11
12 Shimizu S-pulse 8 3 1 4 10
13 Mito Hollyhock 8 2 3 3 9
14 Kyoto Sanga 8 2 2 4 8
15 V-varen Nagasaki 8 2 2 4 8
16 Gamba Osaka 8 1 3 4 6
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 2 0 6 6
18 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1 1 6 4
19 Tokyo Verdy 8 0 4 4 4
20 JEF United Chiba 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Machida Zelvia 8 21 10 +11 17
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 20 6 +14 17
3 Kashiwa Reysol 8 17 12 +5 18
4 Kashima 8 17 16 +1 13
5 Kawasaki Frontale 8 16 12 +4 13
6 Urawa 8 16 18 -2 12
7 FC Tokyo 8 14 8 +6 17
8 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 13 9 +4 14
9 Vissel Kobe 8 12 5 +7 19
10 Fagiano Okayama 8 11 10 +1 13
11 Mito Hollyhock 8 11 11 0 9
12 Kyoto Sanga 8 11 15 -4 8
13 V-varen Nagasaki 8 10 15 -5 8
14 Avispa Fukuoka 8 9 12 -3 4
15 Gamba Osaka 8 8 14 -6 6
16 Cerezo Osaka 8 7 12 -5 11
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 7 14 -7 6
18 JEF United Chiba 8 7 18 -11 4
19 Shimizu S-pulse 8 6 8 -2 10
20 Tokyo Verdy 8 4 12 -8 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 V-varen Nagasaki 8 3.7 1.7 +2.0 8
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 2.2 0.6 +1.6 17
3 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 3.0 1.5 +1.5 14
4 Vissel Kobe 8 2.3 0.9 +1.4 19
5 FC Tokyo 8 3.0 1.7 +1.3 17
6 Cerezo Osaka 8 1.8 1.1 +0.7 11
7 Urawa 8 1.9 1.4 +0.5 12
8 Fagiano Okayama 8 1.3 0.8 +0.5 13
9 Mito Hollyhock 8 1.6 1.3 +0.3 9
10 Kashima 8 1.3 1.6 -0.3 13
11 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1.4 1.9 -0.5 4
12 JEF United Chiba 8 0.8 1.3 -0.5 4
13 Kashiwa Reysol 8 1.1 1.8 -0.7 18
14 Shimizu S-pulse 8 1.7 3.0 -1.3 10
15 Tokyo Verdy 8 0.9 2.3 -1.4 4
16 Kyoto Sanga 8 1.5 3.0 -1.5 8
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 0.6 2.2 -1.6 6
18 Gamba Osaka 8 1.7 3.7 -2.0 6
19 Machida Zelvia 8 — — — 17
20 Kawasaki Frontale 8 — — — 13