Statistics / Football / Serbia. Super Liga / Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd

Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd Statistics & Analysis

Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani
Oct 12, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.37
0 1.67
xG Accuracy: 43%
OFK Beograd OFK Beograd
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 OFK Beograd Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13243375

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Mladost Lucani 0–0 OFK Beograd
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Super Liga
  • Fixture: Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-12 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 27.5% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Mladost Lucani 1.37 — OFK Beograd 1.67 (total xG ≈ 3.04)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 58.6% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +13.4 pts · Est. EV: +24.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.0% · No 38.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.9%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 9 1 0 28
2 Vojvodina 10 7 1 2 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 5 2 2 17
4 Mladost Lucani 10 4 4 2 16
5 IMT Novi Beograd 10 4 3 3 15
6 Železničar Pančevo 9 4 2 3 14
7 Radnik Surdulica 10 3 5 2 14
8 Novi Pazar 10 3 4 3 13
9 Cukaricki 10 3 2 5 11
10 OFK Beograd 10 2 3 5 9
11 FK Partizan 9 2 2 5 8
12 Radnicki NIS 9 2 2 5 8
13 Macva 10 2 2 6 8
14 Zemun 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 24 3 +21 28
2 Vojvodina 10 21 10 +11 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 17 9 +8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 17 19 -2 8
5 Železničar Pančevo 9 14 10 +4 14
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 14 15 -1 14
7 OFK Beograd 10 13 21 -8 9
8 IMT Novi Beograd 10 12 7 +5 15
9 Cukaricki 10 12 18 -6 11
10 Novi Pazar 10 10 11 -1 13
11 Mladost Lucani 10 10 12 -2 16
12 Radnicki NIS 9 6 11 -5 8
13 Macva 10 6 17 -11 8
14 Zemun 10 6 19 -13 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vojvodina 10 9.4 2.3 +7.1 22
2 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 8.1 2.5 +5.6 28
3 Železničar Pančevo 9 3.9 1.9 +2.0 14
4 Cukaricki 10 2.8 2.3 +0.5 11
5 Mladost Lucani 10 0.4 0.0 +0.4 16
6 Novi Pazar 10 2.5 2.4 +0.1 13
7 Radnicki 1923 9 3.2 3.2 0.0 17
8 Radnik Surdulica 10 1.8 1.8 0.0 14
9 IMT Novi Beograd 10 2.7 2.9 -0.2 15
10 FK Partizan 9 4.2 4.6 -0.4 8
11 Radnicki NIS 9 2.3 3.3 -1.0 8
12 OFK Beograd 10 0.3 2.6 -2.3 9
13 Macva 10 1.4 5.7 -4.3 8
14 Zemun 10 2.8 10.4 -7.6 3
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