Statistics / Football / Kuwait. Premier League / Al Tadhamon vs Al Nasar

Al Tadhamon vs Al Nasar Statistics & Analysis

Al Tadhamon Al Tadhamon
Jun 21, 2026 - 17:45
1 1.25
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 86%
Al Nasar Al Nasar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al Nasar Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1550199

Closing Odds 3.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Al Tadhamon 1–1 Al Nasar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 8.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Al Tadhamon (1X2) 35.1 38.0 -2.9
Draw (1X2) 29.5 26.3 +3.2
Al Nasar (1X2) 35.4 35.6 -0.3
Over 2.5 goals 46.6 54.6 -8.0
Under 2.5 goals 53.4 45.4 +8.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 53.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.4%. The difference — about 8.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Al Tadhamon (1X2) 2.41 2.41 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.48 3.48 0.0
Al Nasar (1X2) 2.57 2.57 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.72 1.72 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.07 2.07 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Al Tadhamon vs Al Nasar
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.1% · Draw 29.5% · Away 35.4%
  • xG (showing): Al Tadhamon 1.25 — Al Nasar 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.54)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 53.4% · Implied: 49.2% · Probability edge: +4.2 pts · Est. EV: +10.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Kuwait 18 13 5 0 44
2 Al Qadsia 18 9 5 4 32
3 Kazma 18 8 6 4 30
4 Al Arabi 18 8 6 4 30
5 Al Salmiyah 18 8 6 4 30
6 Al Fahaheel 18 6 3 9 21
7 Al Tadhamon 18 5 3 10 18
8 Al Shabab 18 4 6 8 18
9 Al Nasar 18 4 4 10 16
10 Al Jahra 18 2 2 14 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Kuwait 18 46 10 +36 44
2 Al Qadsia 18 32 14 +18 32
3 Al Arabi 18 28 13 +15 30
4 Kazma 18 22 17 +5 30
5 Al Salmiyah 18 21 12 +9 30
6 Al Fahaheel 18 21 36 -15 21
7 Al Nasar 18 17 24 -7 16
8 Al Tadhamon 18 16 28 -12 18
9 Al Shabab 18 12 33 -21 18
10 Al Jahra 18 11 39 -28 8