Statistics / Football / Morocco. Botola Pro / Maghreb Fès vs Difaa EL Jadida

Maghreb Fès vs Difaa EL Jadida Statistics & Analysis

Maghreb Fès Maghreb Fès
Jun 17, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.24
1 0.95
xG Accuracy: 80%
Difaa EL Jadida Difaa EL Jadida
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Maghreb Fès Maghreb Fès ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 22:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2448275

Closing Odds 1.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Maghreb Fès win · Maghreb Fès 2–1 Difaa EL Jadida
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Difaa EL Jadida (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Difaa EL Jadida (1X2) by about 7.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Maghreb Fès (1X2) 46.3 58.8 -12.5
Draw (1X2) 30.8 25.9 +5.0
Difaa EL Jadida (1X2) 22.9 15.3 +7.5
Over 2.5 goals 37.5 42.5 -5.0
Under 2.5 goals 62.5 57.5 +5.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 22.9% on Difaa EL Jadida (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.3%. The difference — about 7.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Maghreb Fès (1X2) 1.56 1.56 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.55 3.55 0.0
Difaa EL Jadida (1X2) 5.99 5.99 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.21 2.21 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.63 1.63 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Botola Pro
  • Fixture: Maghreb Fès vs Difaa EL Jadida
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.3% · Draw 30.8% · Away 22.9%
  • xG (showing): Maghreb Fès 1.24 — Difaa EL Jadida 0.95 (total xG ≈ 2.19)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 62.5% · Over 2.5 37.5%); BTTS No (Yes 45.3% · No 54.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.3% · No 54.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Botola Pro Botola Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maghreb Fès 30 16 11 3 59
2 Renaissance Berkane 30 16 9 5 57
3 Raja Casablanca 30 16 8 6 56
4 FAR Rabat 30 13 16 1 55
5 Wydad AC 30 13 4 13 43
6 Difaa EL Jadida 30 9 13 8 40
7 Ittihad Tanger 30 9 12 9 39
8 FUS Rabat 30 9 10 11 37
9 Kawkab Marrakech 30 8 12 10 36
10 CODM Meknès 30 9 9 12 36
11 CR Khemis Zemamra 30 8 9 13 33
12 Hassania Agadir 30 8 9 13 33
13 UTS Rabat 30 6 13 11 31
14 Yacoub El Mansour 30 7 9 14 30
15 Olympique Dcheïra 30 7 9 14 30
16 Olympique Safi 30 3 13 14 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FAR Rabat 30 45 22 +23 55
2 Renaissance Berkane 30 44 27 +17 57
3 Maghreb Fès 30 40 17 +23 59
4 Raja Casablanca 30 39 19 +20 56
5 Wydad AC 30 39 33 +6 43
6 Yacoub El Mansour 30 34 44 -10 30
7 UTS Rabat 30 32 40 -8 31
8 FUS Rabat 30 31 36 -5 37
9 Difaa EL Jadida 30 30 34 -4 40
10 Olympique Dcheïra 30 29 40 -11 30
11 CR Khemis Zemamra 30 28 37 -9 33
12 Kawkab Marrakech 30 27 26 +1 36
13 Ittihad Tanger 30 27 31 -4 39
14 Hassania Agadir 30 27 39 -12 33
15 CODM Meknès 30 24 33 -9 36
16 Olympique Safi 30 24 42 -18 22
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