Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie D / Cianorte vs Independiente FSJ

Cianorte vs Independiente FSJ Statistics & Analysis

Cianorte Cianorte
Jun 28, 2026 - 19:00
0(5) 1.39
1(4) 1.21
xG Accuracy: 64%
Independiente FSJ Independiente FSJ
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cianorte Independiente FSJ ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 07:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2850955

Closing Odds 5.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Independiente FSJ win · Cianorte 0–1 Independiente FSJ
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.42 percentage points on Cianorte (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 10.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Cianorte (1X2) 45.6 54.2 -8.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.8 -0.3
Independiente FSJ (1X2) 24.8 16.0 +8.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 37.3 +10.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 62.7 -10.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.3%. The difference — about 10.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Cianorte (1X2) 1.51 1.68 -4.4
Draw (1X2) 3.2 3.05 +2.2
Independiente FSJ (1X2) 6.43 5.69 +2.2
Over 2.5 goals 2.4 2.49 -0.7
Under 2.5 goals 1.47 1.48 +0.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie D
  • Fixture: Cianorte vs Independiente FSJ
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-28 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 24.8%
  • xG (showing): Cianorte 1.39 — Independiente FSJ 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.3% · Implied: 39.2% · Probability edge: +15.1 pts · Est. EV: +38.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie D Serie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manauara 10 6 4 0 22
2 Nacional AM 10 6 2 2 20
3 Sao Raimundo 10 3 4 3 13
4 Monte Roraima 10 2 4 4 10
5 Manaus FC 10 2 4 4 10
6 GAS 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nacional AM 10 15 9 +6 20
2 Manauara 10 13 5 +8 22
3 Monte Roraima 10 11 14 -3 10
4 Sao Raimundo 10 10 7 +3 13
5 Manaus FC 10 8 13 -5 10
6 GAS 10 8 17 -9 5