Statistics / Football / Macedonia. Second League / Akademija Pandev vs Makedonija GjP

Akademija Pandev vs Makedonija GjP Statistics & Analysis

Akademija Pandev Akademija Pandev
Sep 06, 2026 - 14:30
1 1.14
0 1.46
xG Accuracy: 64%
Makedonija GjP Makedonija GjP
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Makedonija GjP Akademija Pandev ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6157181

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Akademija Pandev win · Akademija Pandev 1–0 Makedonija GjP
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 6.31 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Makedonija GjP (1X2) by about 20.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Akademija Pandev (1X2) 27.9 53.5 -25.6
Draw (1X2) 29.2 24.4 +4.8
Makedonija GjP (1X2) 42.9 22.1 +20.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.4 -5.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.6 +5.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 42.9% on Makedonija GjP (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.1%. The difference — about 20.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Akademija Pandev (1X2) 1.66 1.68 +0.1
Draw (1X2) 3.26 3.69 -2.9
Makedonija GjP (1X2) 4.6 4.07 +2.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.97 1.74 +6.3
Under 2.5 goals 1.75 1.99 -6.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Akademija Pandev vs Makedonija GjP
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.9%
  • xG (showing): Akademija Pandev 1.14 — Makedonija GjP 1.46 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.3% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +3.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ohrid 6 5 0 1 15
2 Pelister 6 4 2 0 14
3 Akademija Pandev 5 4 1 0 13
4 FK Rabotnicki 5 4 0 1 12
5 Belasica 6 2 4 0 10
6 Kamjani 6 3 1 2 10
7 Novaci 6 2 1 3 7
8 Makedonija GjP 6 2 1 3 7
9 Detonit Plachkovica 6 2 1 3 7
10 Kozuv Gevgelija 6 2 1 3 7
11 Teteks 6 1 3 2 6
12 Gorno Lisiče 6 1 1 4 4
13 Osogovo 6 0 2 4 2
14 Shkupi 1927 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ohrid 6 14 4 +10 15
2 Akademija Pandev 5 12 1 +11 13
3 Pelister 6 9 1 +8 14
4 Belasica 6 7 5 +2 10
5 FK Rabotnicki 5 6 2 +4 12
6 Kamjani 6 6 5 +1 10
7 Detonit Plachkovica 6 6 8 -2 7
8 Teteks 6 6 8 -2 6
9 Kozuv Gevgelija 6 6 11 -5 7
10 Novaci 6 5 5 0 7
11 Gorno Lisiče 6 5 6 -1 4
12 Makedonija GjP 6 3 4 -1 7
13 Osogovo 6 2 6 -4 2
14 Shkupi 1927 6 1 22 -21 0