Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow Statistics & Analysis

Legia Warszawa

Oct 11, 2026 - 18:15

2 1.44

0 1.35

xG Accuracy: 59%

Wisla Krakow

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13234673

Closing Odds 3.0

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Legia Warszawa win · Legia Warszawa 2–0 Wisla Krakow

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Wisla Krakow (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Wisla Krakow (1X2) by about 2.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Legia Warszawa (1X2)	39.2	40.4	-1.1
Draw (1X2)	28.0	29.3	-1.3
Wisla Krakow (1X2)	32.7	30.3	+2.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.7% on Wisla Krakow (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.3%. The difference — about 2.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Legia Warszawa (1X2)	2.25	2.25
Draw (1X2)	3.1	3.1
Wisla Krakow (1X2)	3.0	3.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Ekstraklasa
Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 18:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.2% · Draw 28.0% · Away 32.7%
xG (showing): Legia Warszawa 1.44 — Wisla Krakow 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.79)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 52.8% · Implied: 51.2% · Probability edge: +1.6 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 58.1% · No 41.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Ekstraklasa — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	8	1	1	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	7	1	1	22
3	Legia Warszawa	10	6	4	0	22
4	Pogon Szczecin	9	5	3	1	18
5	GKS Katowice	10	6	0	4	18
6	Wisla Krakow	10	5	2	3	17
7	Piast Gliwice	10	5	1	4	16
8	Korona Kielce	10	4	3	3	15
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	4	3	3	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	4	0	5	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	10	3	2	5	11
12	Wisla Plock	9	3	2	4	11
13	Widzew Łódź	10	1	6	3	9
14	Motor Lublin	10	2	3	5	9
15	Wieczysta Kraków	10	2	2	6	8
16	Radomiak Radom	10	2	2	6	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	10	1	3	6	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	1	0	9	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	GKS Katowice	10	22	15	+7	18
2	Lech Poznan	9	21	8	+13	22
3	Legia Warszawa	10	21	8	+13	22
4	Gornik Zabrze	10	19	9	+10	25
5	Piast Gliwice	10	18	16	+2	16
6	Wisla Krakow	10	17	14	+3	17
7	Wieczysta Kraków	10	15	19	-4	8
8	Pogon Szczecin	9	14	6	+8	18
9	Widzew Łódź	10	14	15	-1	9
10	Jagiellonia	9	13	16	-3	12
11	Raków Częstochowa	10	13	25	-12	3
12	Korona Kielce	10	12	12	0	15
13	Zaglebie Lubin	10	12	13	-1	15
14	Cracovia Krakow	10	12	15	-3	11
15	Motor Lublin	10	12	17	-5	9
16	Slask Wroclaw	10	12	19	-7	6
17	Wisla Plock	9	9	15	-6	11
18	Radomiak Radom	10	9	23	-14	8

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Lech Poznan	9	12.5	4.9	+7.6	22
2	Cracovia Krakow	10	13.4	8.3	+5.1	11
3	Legia Warszawa	10	11.2	6.9	+4.3	22
4	Gornik Zabrze	10	12.1	8.3	+3.8	25
5	Wisla Krakow	10	12.9	9.2	+3.7	17
6	Wieczysta Kraków	10	13.5	11.1	+2.4	8
7	Motor Lublin	10	11.3	10.1	+1.2	9
8	Jagiellonia	9	9.5	9.1	+0.4	12
9	Widzew Łódź	10	11.6	11.3	+0.3	9
10	Pogon Szczecin	9	9.0	9.8	-0.8	18
11	Slask Wroclaw	10	11.3	12.6	-1.3	6
12	Zaglebie Lubin	10	9.5	11.2	-1.7	15
13	GKS Katowice	10	12.2	14.3	-2.1	18
14	Wisla Plock	9	10.2	12.7	-2.5	11
15	Korona Kielce	10	6.2	9.6	-3.4	15
16	Piast Gliwice	10	9.0	12.6	-3.6	16
17	Radomiak Radom	10	8.3	13.8	-5.5	8
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	11.2	19.1	-7.9	3