Statistics / Football / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin

Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin Statistics & Analysis

Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow
Oct 10, 2026 - 12:45
3 1.51
1 1.04
xG Accuracy: 66%
Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13206029

Closing Odds 1.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Cracovia Krakow win · Cracovia Krakow 3–1 Zaglebie Lubin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Cracovia Krakow (1X2) 47.4 48.7 -1.3
Draw (1X2) 28.4 28.2 +0.2
Zaglebie Lubin (1X2) 24.2 23.1 +1.1

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bets io

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Cracovia Krakow (1X2) 1.87 1.87 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.23 3.23 0.0
Zaglebie Lubin (1X2) 3.94 3.94 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ekstraklasa
  • Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 12:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 47.4% · Draw 28.4% · Away 24.2%
  • xG (showing): Cracovia Krakow 1.51 — Zaglebie Lubin 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.55)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 53.1% · Implied: 49.7% · Probability edge: +3.4 pts · Est. EV: +3.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gornik Zabrze 9 7 1 1 22
2 Legia Warszawa 9 5 4 0 19
3 Lech Poznan 8 6 1 1 19
4 Wisla Krakow 9 5 2 2 17
5 Pogon Szczecin 8 4 3 1 15
6 Korona Kielce 9 4 3 2 15
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 4 3 2 15
8 Piast Gliwice 9 4 1 4 13
9 GKS Katowice 8 4 0 4 12
10 Jagiellonia 8 4 0 4 12
11 Wisla Plock 8 3 2 3 11
12 Widzew Łódź 9 1 6 2 9
13 Cracovia Krakow 9 2 2 5 8
14 Radomiak Radom 9 2 2 5 8
15 Slask Wroclaw 9 1 3 5 6
16 Motor Lublin 9 1 3 5 6
17 Wieczysta Kraków 8 1 2 5 5
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa 9 19 8 +11 19
2 Lech Poznan 8 17 7 +10 19
3 Wisla Krakow 9 17 12 +5 17
4 Gornik Zabrze 9 16 8 +8 22
5 GKS Katowice 8 16 13 +3 12
6 Piast Gliwice 9 16 15 +1 13
7 Widzew Łódź 9 13 13 0 9
8 Pogon Szczecin 8 12 6 +6 15
9 Korona Kielce 9 12 10 +2 15
10 Jagiellonia 8 12 13 -1 12
11 Raków Częstochowa 9 12 21 -9 3
12 Zaglebie Lubin 9 11 10 +1 15
13 Slask Wroclaw 9 11 15 -4 6
14 Wieczysta Kraków 8 11 17 -6 5
15 Wisla Plock 8 9 12 -3 11
16 Cracovia Krakow 9 9 14 -5 8
17 Motor Lublin 9 9 15 -6 6
18 Radomiak Radom 9 7 20 -13 8
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 8 12.5 4.9 +7.6 19
2 Cracovia Krakow 9 13.4 8.3 +5.1 8
3 Wisla Krakow 9 12.0 7.9 +4.1 17
4 Legia Warszawa 9 9.9 6.0 +3.9 19
5 Gornik Zabrze 9 12.1 8.3 +3.8 22
6 Wieczysta Kraków 8 11.0 10.2 +0.8 5
7 Jagiellonia 8 9.5 9.1 +0.4 12
8 Widzew Łódź 9 9.8 9.7 +0.1 9
9 GKS Katowice 8 11.3 11.8 -0.5 12
10 Motor Lublin 9 8.7 9.2 -0.5 6
11 Pogon Szczecin 8 8.1 8.9 -0.8 15
12 Slask Wroclaw 9 11.3 12.6 -1.3 6
13 Zaglebie Lubin 9 9.5 11.2 -1.7 15
14 Wisla Plock 8 10.2 12.7 -2.5 11
15 Korona Kielce 9 5.4 8.7 -3.3 15
16 Piast Gliwice 9 7.3 10.8 -3.5 13
17 Radomiak Radom 9 7.4 11.2 -3.8 8
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 11.2 19.1 -7.9 3
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