Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce Statistics & Analysis

Widzew Łódź

Aug 15, 2026 - 18:15

1 1.21

2 0.86

xG Accuracy: 69%

Korona Kielce

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Widzew Łódź Korona Kielce ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3366065

Closing Odds 1.99

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Korona Kielce win · Widzew Łódź 1–2 Korona Kielce

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Korona Kielce (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Widzew Łódź (1X2)	42.5	48.4	-5.8
Draw (1X2)	33.0	28.3	+4.7
Korona Kielce (1X2)	24.5	23.4	+1.1
Over 2.5 goals	34.2	44.6	-10.4
Under 2.5 goals	65.8	55.4	+10.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 65.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 55.4%. The difference — about 10.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Widzew Łódź (1X2)	1.99	1.99
Draw (1X2)	3.4	3.4
Korona Kielce (1X2)	4.12	4.12
Over 2.5 goals	2.16	2.16
Under 2.5 goals	1.74	1.74

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Ekstraklasa
Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 18:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.5% · Draw 33.0% · Away 24.5%
xG (showing): Widzew Łódź 1.21 — Korona Kielce 0.86 (total xG ≈ 2.07)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 65.8% · Implied: 56.1% · Probability edge: +9.7 pts · Est. EV: +13.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 42.2% · No 57.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraklasa — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	9	7	1	1	22
2	Legia Warszawa	9	5	4	0	19
3	Lech Poznan	8	6	1	1	19
4	Wisla Krakow	9	5	2	2	17
5	Pogon Szczecin	8	4	3	1	15
6	Korona Kielce	9	4	3	2	15
7	Zaglebie Lubin	9	4	3	2	15
8	Piast Gliwice	9	4	1	4	13
9	GKS Katowice	8	4	0	4	12
10	Jagiellonia	8	4	0	4	12
11	Wisla Plock	8	3	2	3	11
12	Widzew Łódź	9	1	6	2	9
13	Cracovia Krakow	9	2	2	5	8
14	Radomiak Radom	9	2	2	5	8
15	Slask Wroclaw	9	1	3	5	6
16	Motor Lublin	9	1	3	5	6
17	Wieczysta Kraków	8	1	2	5	5
18	Raków Częstochowa	9	1	0	8	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa	9	19	8	+11	19
2	Lech Poznan	8	17	7	+10	19
3	Wisla Krakow	9	17	12	+5	17
4	Gornik Zabrze	9	16	8	+8	22
5	GKS Katowice	8	16	13	+3	12
6	Piast Gliwice	9	16	15	+1	13
7	Widzew Łódź	9	13	13	0	9
8	Pogon Szczecin	8	12	6	+6	15
9	Korona Kielce	9	12	10	+2	15
10	Jagiellonia	8	12	13	-1	12
11	Raków Częstochowa	9	12	21	-9	3
12	Zaglebie Lubin	9	11	10	+1	15
13	Slask Wroclaw	9	11	15	-4	6
14	Wieczysta Kraków	8	11	17	-6	5
15	Wisla Plock	8	9	12	-3	11
16	Cracovia Krakow	9	9	14	-5	8
17	Motor Lublin	9	9	15	-6	6
18	Radomiak Radom	9	7	20	-13	8

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Lech Poznan	8	10.4	4.1	+6.3	19
2	Wisla Krakow	9	12.0	7.9	+4.1	17
3	Legia Warszawa	9	9.9	6.0	+3.9	19
4	Cracovia Krakow	9	10.4	7.1	+3.3	8
5	Gornik Zabrze	9	10.0	7.7	+2.3	22
6	Jagiellonia	8	8.9	6.9	+2.0	12
7	Zaglebie Lubin	9	8.4	8.2	+0.2	15
8	Widzew Łódź	9	9.8	9.7	+0.1	9
9	Slask Wroclaw	9	10.5	10.6	-0.1	6
10	Wieczysta Kraków	8	9.1	9.6	-0.5	5
11	Motor Lublin	9	8.7	9.2	-0.5	6
12	Pogon Szczecin	8	8.1	8.9	-0.8	15
13	Wisla Plock	8	9.6	10.8	-1.2	11
14	GKS Katowice	8	8.8	10.6	-1.8	12
15	Korona Kielce	9	5.4	8.7	-3.3	15
16	Piast Gliwice	9	7.3	10.8	-3.5	13
17	Radomiak Radom	9	7.4	11.2	-3.8	8
18	Raków Częstochowa	9	9.9	16.5	-6.6	3