Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paranaense U20 / Araucaria U20 vs Patriotas U20

Araucaria U20 vs Patriotas U20 Statistics & Analysis

Araucaria U20 Araucaria U20
Jun 21, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 85%
Patriotas U20 Patriotas U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Araucaria U20 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1789713

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Araucaria U20 1–1 Patriotas U20
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Paranaense U20
  • Fixture: Araucaria U20 vs Patriotas U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Araucaria U20 1.3 — Patriotas U20 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Paranaense U20 Paranaense U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Coritiba U20 11 8 1 2 25
2 Athletico PR U20 11 7 2 2 23
3 Cascavel U20 11 5 5 1 20
4 City London U20 11 5 3 3 18
5 Operário PR U20 11 5 1 5 16
6 Galo Maringá U20 11 4 2 5 14
7 Araucaria U20 11 4 2 5 14
8 Patriotas U20 11 4 2 5 14
9 Parana Clube U20 11 3 4 4 13
10 CE União U20 11 2 3 6 9
11 Hope Internacional U20 11 2 3 6 9
12 Cianorte U20 11 2 2 7 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Coritiba U20 11 24 8 +16 25
2 Cascavel U20 11 23 15 +8 20
3 Galo Maringá U20 11 23 21 +2 14
4 Athletico PR U20 11 21 10 +11 23
5 City London U20 11 21 19 +2 18
6 Operário PR U20 11 16 16 0 16
7 Araucaria U20 11 15 17 -2 14
8 Parana Clube U20 11 14 16 -2 13
9 CE União U20 11 14 26 -12 9
10 Patriotas U20 11 13 17 -4 14
11 Cianorte U20 11 13 26 -13 8
12 Hope Internacional U20 11 12 18 -6 9