Saint Etienne vs Rodez Statistics & Analysis

Saint Etienne

Oct 10, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.45

0 1.42

xG Accuracy: 58%

Rodez

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Saint Etienne Saint Etienne ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13247887

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Saint Etienne win · Saint Etienne 2–0 Rodez

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Ligue 2
Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Rodez
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.6% · Draw 27.2% · Away 31.2%
xG (showing): Saint Etienne 1.45 — Rodez 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.87)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	7	5	1	1	16
2	RED Star FC 93	7	4	2	1	14
3	Reims	7	3	4	0	13
4	Montpellier	7	3	3	1	12
5	Metz	7	2	4	1	10
6	Nancy	7	3	1	3	10
7	Annecy	7	3	1	3	10
8	Sochaux	7	2	4	1	10
9	Dijon	7	2	3	2	9
10	PAU	7	2	2	3	8
11	Guingamp	7	2	2	3	8
12	Dunkerque	7	2	2	3	8
13	Grenoble	7	2	2	3	8
14	Rodez	7	2	1	4	7
15	Nantes	7	2	1	4	7
16	Clermont Foot	7	0	6	1	6
17	Boulogne	7	0	5	2	5
18	Laval	7	1	2	4	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	7	19	8	+11	16
2	Reims	7	15	9	+6	13
3	Rodez	7	14	16	-2	7
4	Metz	7	10	7	+3	10
5	Dijon	7	10	10	0	9
6	Guingamp	7	10	12	-2	8
7	Dunkerque	7	10	12	-2	8
8	RED Star FC 93	7	9	7	+2	14
9	Annecy	7	9	9	0	10
10	Nantes	7	9	13	-4	7
11	Nancy	7	8	7	+1	10
12	Grenoble	7	8	11	-3	8
13	Laval	7	8	14	-6	5
14	Montpellier	7	6	5	+1	12
15	PAU	7	6	6	0	8
16	Sochaux	7	4	5	-1	10
17	Clermont Foot	7	4	6	-2	6
18	Boulogne	7	3	5	-2	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Nancy	7	2.9	0.5	+2.4	10
2	Nantes	7	2.0	0.3	+1.7	7
3	Annecy	7	1.8	0.7	+1.1	10
4	Saint Etienne	7	1.6	0.8	+0.8	16
5	RED Star FC 93	7	2.4	1.8	+0.6	14
6	Boulogne	7	1.2	0.8	+0.4	5
7	PAU	7	1.9	1.8	+0.1	8
8	Montpellier	7	1.5	1.5	0.0	12
9	Grenoble	7	1.5	1.5	0.0	8
10	Laval	7	1.8	1.9	-0.1	5
11	Sochaux	7	0.8	1.2	-0.4	10
12	Clermont Foot	7	1.8	2.4	-0.6	6
13	Rodez	7	0.8	1.6	-0.8	7
14	Dunkerque	7	0.7	1.8	-1.1	8
15	Reims	7	0.3	2.0	-1.7	13
16	Guingamp	7	0.5	2.9	-2.4	8
17	Metz	7	—	—	—	10
18	Dijon	7	—	—	—	9