Statistics / Football / France. Ligue 2 / PAU vs Laval

PAU vs Laval Statistics & Analysis

PAU PAU
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.31
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 52%
Laval Laval
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 PAU PAU ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12702925

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result PAU win · PAU 3–2 Laval
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligue 2
  • Fixture: PAU vs Laval
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): PAU 1.31 — Laval 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 2 Ligue 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Saint Etienne 7 5 1 1 16
2 RED Star FC 93 7 4 2 1 14
3 Reims 7 3 4 0 13
4 Montpellier 7 3 3 1 12
5 Metz 7 2 4 1 10
6 Nancy 7 3 1 3 10
7 Annecy 7 3 1 3 10
8 Sochaux 7 2 4 1 10
9 Dijon 7 2 3 2 9
10 PAU 7 2 2 3 8
11 Guingamp 7 2 2 3 8
12 Dunkerque 7 2 2 3 8
13 Grenoble 7 2 2 3 8
14 Rodez 7 2 1 4 7
15 Nantes 7 2 1 4 7
16 Clermont Foot 7 0 6 1 6
17 Boulogne 7 0 5 2 5
18 Laval 7 1 2 4 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Saint Etienne 7 19 8 +11 16
2 Reims 7 15 9 +6 13
3 Rodez 7 14 16 -2 7
4 Metz 7 10 7 +3 10
5 Dijon 7 10 10 0 9
6 Guingamp 7 10 12 -2 8
7 Dunkerque 7 10 12 -2 8
8 RED Star FC 93 7 9 7 +2 14
9 Annecy 7 9 9 0 10
10 Nantes 7 9 13 -4 7
11 Nancy 7 8 7 +1 10
12 Grenoble 7 8 11 -3 8
13 Laval 7 8 14 -6 5
14 Montpellier 7 6 5 +1 12
15 PAU 7 6 6 0 8
16 Sochaux 7 4 5 -1 10
17 Clermont Foot 7 4 6 -2 6
18 Boulogne 7 3 5 -2 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Nancy 7 2.9 0.5 +2.4 10
2 Nantes 7 2.0 0.3 +1.7 7
3 Annecy 7 1.8 0.7 +1.1 10
4 Saint Etienne 7 1.6 0.8 +0.8 16
5 RED Star FC 93 7 2.4 1.8 +0.6 14
6 Boulogne 7 1.2 0.8 +0.4 5
7 PAU 7 1.9 1.8 +0.1 8
8 Montpellier 7 1.5 1.5 0.0 12
9 Grenoble 7 1.5 1.5 0.0 8
10 Laval 7 1.8 1.9 -0.1 5
11 Sochaux 7 0.8 1.2 -0.4 10
12 Clermont Foot 7 1.8 2.4 -0.6 6
13 Rodez 7 0.8 1.6 -0.8 7
14 Dunkerque 7 0.7 1.8 -1.1 8
15 Reims 7 0.3 2.0 -1.7 13
16 Guingamp 7 0.5 2.9 -2.4 8
17 Metz 7 — — — 10
18 Dijon 7 — — — 9
Ligue 2 France. Ligue 2 Predictions