Twente vs Telstar Statistics & Analysis

Twente

Sep 09, 2026 - 16:45

1 1.60

0 1.06

xG Accuracy: 63%

Telstar

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Twente Twente ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 08:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6750739

Closing Odds 1.25

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Twente win · Twente 1–0 Telstar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Telstar (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 25.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Twente (1X2)	57.5	76.6	-19.1
Draw (1X2)	23.9	13.9	+9.9
Telstar (1X2)	18.7	9.5	+9.2
Over 2.5 goals	49.6	75.5	-25.9
Under 2.5 goals	50.3	24.5	+25.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.3% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 24.5%. The difference — about 25.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Twente (1X2)	1.25	1.25
Draw (1X2)	6.87	6.87
Telstar (1X2)	10.08	10.08
Over 2.5 goals	1.26	1.26
Under 2.5 goals	3.88	3.88

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Eredivisie
Fixture: Twente vs Telstar
Kickoff: 2026-09-09 16:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 57.5% · Draw 23.9% · Away 18.7%
xG (showing): Twente 1.6 — Telstar 1.06 (total xG ≈ 2.66)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Twente & Telstar!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Eredivisie — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	5	1	0	16
2	AZ Alkmaar	6	5	1	0	16
3	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	14
4	Ajax	6	4	1	1	13
5	Twente	6	4	1	1	13
6	Excelsior	6	3	1	2	10
7	Fortuna Sittard	6	3	1	2	10
8	GO Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	9
9	Groningen	6	2	2	2	8
10	NEC Nijmegen	6	2	1	3	7
11	Heerenveen	6	1	3	2	6
12	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	2	3	5
13	Telstar	6	1	2	3	5
14	Utrecht	6	1	2	3	5
15	Cambuur	6	1	1	4	4
16	PEC Zwolle	6	1	1	4	4
17	Willem II	6	0	2	4	2
18	ADO Den Haag	6	0	1	5	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	22	7	+15	16
2	Feyenoord	6	20	7	+13	14
3	Ajax	6	19	7	+12	13
4	AZ Alkmaar	6	17	6	+11	16
5	GO Ahead Eagles	6	15	13	+2	9
6	Excelsior	6	13	7	+6	10
7	Twente	6	12	5	+7	13
8	Groningen	6	12	13	-1	8
9	Fortuna Sittard	6	12	14	-2	10
10	NEC Nijmegen	6	11	12	-1	7
11	Utrecht	6	11	19	-8	5
12	Sparta Rotterdam	6	10	13	-3	5
13	Cambuur	6	9	18	-9	4
14	Heerenveen	6	7	9	-2	6
15	ADO Den Haag	6	6	16	-10	1
16	PEC Zwolle	6	6	17	-11	4
17	Willem II	6	6	19	-13	2
18	Telstar	6	5	11	-6	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	12.0	2.7	+9.3	16
2	Feyenoord	6	11.3	3.8	+7.5	14
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	12.4	5.5	+6.9	16
4	Twente	6	5.6	1.5	+4.1	13
5	Ajax	6	5.7	3.1	+2.6	13
6	NEC Nijmegen	6	6.9	4.9	+2.0	7
7	Excelsior	6	4.8	3.9	+0.9	10
8	GO Ahead Eagles	6	6.7	7.7	-1.0	9
9	Telstar	6	6.1	7.1	-1.0	5
10	Groningen	6	7.3	8.6	-1.3	8
11	Heerenveen	6	5.3	7.3	-2.0	6
12	Willem II	6	4.6	6.7	-2.1	2
13	Sparta Rotterdam	6	5.8	8.0	-2.2	5
14	PEC Zwolle	6	4.1	6.4	-2.3	4
15	Utrecht	6	5.3	8.2	-2.9	5
16	Cambuur	6	5.8	11.2	-5.4	4
17	ADO Den Haag	6	3.2	9.3	-6.1	1
18	Fortuna Sittard	6	3.7	10.7	-7.0	10