NAC Breda vs MVV Statistics & Analysis

NAC Breda

Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.29

0 1.45

xG Accuracy: 62%

MVV

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 MVV NAC Breda ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12702341

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result NAC Breda win · NAC Breda 1–0 MVV

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Eerste Divisie
Fixture: NAC Breda vs MVV
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.0% · Draw 28.6% · Away 39.3%
xG (showing): NAC Breda 1.29 — MVV 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.74)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 48.4% · Implied: 29.7% · Probability edge: +18.7 pts · Est. EV: +61.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 57.0% · No 43.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Eerste Divisie — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heracles	9	7	1	1	22
2	Almere City FC	9	6	1	2	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	6	0	3	18
4	Emmen	9	5	1	3	16
5	MVV	9	5	1	3	16
6	Roda	9	4	3	2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	3	5	1	14
8	Vitesse	9	4	2	3	14
9	NAC Breda	9	4	2	3	14
10	Jong AZ	9	4	1	4	13
11	FC Volendam	9	4	0	5	12
12	Jong PSV	9	3	3	3	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	3	2	4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	2	3	4	9
15	FC OSS	9	3	0	6	9
16	Den Bosch	9	2	2	5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	2	2	5	8
18	Dordrecht	9	2	2	5	8
19	De Graafschap	9	2	2	5	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	2	1	6	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Heracles	9	28	12	+16	22
2	VVV Venlo	9	23	14	+9	18
3	Jong AZ	9	22	17	+5	13
4	FC Volendam	9	20	17	+3	12
5	Almere City FC	9	19	7	+12	19
6	Waalwijk	9	19	12	+7	14
7	Emmen	9	19	18	+1	16
8	NAC Breda	9	19	19	0	14
9	Vitesse	9	15	13	+2	14
10	Helmond Sport	9	15	16	-1	9
11	FC Eindhoven	9	15	19	-4	11
12	Jong Utrecht	9	15	21	-6	7
13	Jong PSV	9	14	16	-2	12
14	Den Bosch	9	13	18	-5	8
15	MVV	9	13	19	-6	16
16	Jong Ajax	9	13	22	-9	8
17	Dordrecht	9	13	24	-11	8
18	FC OSS	9	12	14	-2	9
19	De Graafschap	9	11	22	-11	8
20	Roda	9	9	7	+2	15

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Heracles	9	12.6	6.8	+5.8	22
2	FC Volendam	9	10.7	6.4	+4.3	12
3	NAC Breda	9	10.5	7.1	+3.4	14
4	Almere City FC	9	10.0	6.6	+3.4	19
5	Emmen	9	10.4	7.2	+3.2	16
6	Den Bosch	9	10.5	7.8	+2.7	8
7	Jong PSV	9	9.9	7.2	+2.7	12
8	MVV	9	7.0	4.5	+2.5	16
9	Vitesse	9	9.3	7.8	+1.5	14
10	Roda	9	9.6	8.5	+1.1	15
11	Jong AZ	9	7.7	6.6	+1.1	13
12	FC OSS	9	8.1	8.7	-0.6	9
13	Waalwijk	9	5.5	7.0	-1.5	14
14	VVV Venlo	9	8.1	10.3	-2.2	18
15	De Graafschap	9	7.0	9.2	-2.2	8
16	Jong Ajax	9	9.8	13.2	-3.4	8
17	Jong Utrecht	9	7.0	11.2	-4.2	7
18	Helmond Sport	9	4.1	9.0	-4.9	9
19	Dordrecht	9	6.0	11.9	-5.9	8
20	FC Eindhoven	9	4.4	11.0	-6.6	11